Forging and Stamping NAICS 3321

Aug 21, 2025 - US Manufacturing Contracts Again in July

• US factory activity contracted in July at the fastest pace in nine months, dragged down by a faster decline in employment as orders continued to shrink, Bloomberg reports. New orders for manufactured durable goods – an indicator of future demand for forging and stamping work – decreased 9.3% month over month in June, following a 16.5% increase in May and 6.6% decline in April, according to the Census Bureau. New orders for transportation equipment, down 22.4% MoM in June, drove the decline. July marked the fifth consecutive month that factory activity in the US declined. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 48 in July from 49 the prior month. The five-month stretch of contraction followed a two-month expansion preceded by 26 months of contraction, not a great track record for US manufacturing.
• New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the US have a direct impact on small fabricators’ cost structures, bidding strategies, and overall competitiveness, according to Exiil, a provider of software to metal manufacturers. In March, President Trump raised steel and aluminum import tariffs to the US by 25% -- and then again to 50% -- ending all country exemptions, in addition to hiking tariffs on China, according to Reuters. Russian aluminum imports carry a tariff of 200%. Beyond raw metal, the US has increasingly added “downstream” or “derivative” products – such as stamped parts, fasteners, tubing, wire, or other items with high steel/aluminum content – to existing Section 232 tariffs. As a result, fabricators face higher materials costs. Even companies that source metals domestically are likely to pay more for metal as US mills often raise their prices when foreign competitors’ costs go up – because the “floor” of the market shifts.

• Metal stamping is among the industries likely to be most impacted by President Trump’s new 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. An International Trade Commission report on the impact of the 2018 Trump tariffs, which ranked industries by their dependence on steel and aluminum, found that motor vehicle metal stamping uses the most steel (58%). Reacting to Trump’s announcement, the Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users (CAMMU) said in a statement: “Re-imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from our allies and without a workable exclusion process puts US manufacturers directly in harm’s way.” It noted that under Section 232 tariffs already in effect US manufacturers are paying significantly more for steel and aluminum than their global competitors, undermining their ability to compete. The statement says small and medium-sized businesses are particularly vulnerable to losing contracts to overseas rivals with unrestricted access to these essential inputs.
• Producer prices for forging and stamping companies were flat in July compared to a year ago after falling 1.3% in the previous July-versus-July annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Industry producer prices have been trending downward since peaking in May 2022, but remain relatively high by historical standards. Employment by the industry was flat year over year in June, while average industry wage at forging and stamping firms jumped 9.5% over the same period to a new high of $26.66 per hour, BLS data show.