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Sep 3, 2025 - China to US Shipping Rates Tumble in July

• Tumbling ocean shipping rates from China to the US indicate the peak shipping season of 2025 was shorter than usual and retailers and manufacturers are wary of placing new orders because of tariffs. The rate slide in July of 68% from the previous month comes just before the fall and winter shopping season, one of the busiest shipping times of the year. The tariff situation is making it difficult for shipping companies to properly plan ahead, with importers either reducing current inventory or leaning heavily on the stockpiled goods they bought when the tariffs were announced in April. The average shipping rate from China to the West Coast in early September was $1,802, down from the year’s high of $5,553 in June. The forecast for the rest of the year from the National Retail Federation predicts monthly year-over-year declines of anywhere from 19% to 21%.
• Trucking companies expect freight demand to remain flat this year as the industry heads into its busiest time of the year when retailers load up on back-to-school and holiday products. Whipsawing US tariff policies causing fast shifts in import and inventory volume hit trucking hard in a year when the industry expected to make a comeback from a three-year decline. The Cass Freight Index, which measures US shipping demand, fell 4% year over year in May as companies who stocked up on inventory ahead of tariffs now have less use for freight transportation, squelching demand. The overall effect is sinking freight rates, with the average contract rate for May at $2.36 a mile, down 7 cents from the previous year. The industry is also pulling back on investments with orders for heavy duty trucks in May falling to one of the lowest levels in two years, per ACT Research.

• Containership arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, which together handle one-third of US container imports, fell 17% in early May 2025 amid the off-again, on-again Trump tariff policy. Port officials said the ships that did arrive were carrying less cargo than normal, which ripples across the supply chain in less hours for dockworkers and warehouse employees, and less cargo for truckers to haul. Nearby restaurants and businesses also see depressed sales when the port is not busy. (Port of LA officials say every four containers entering the port supports one job nationwide.) According to the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, the lull is causing full-time dockworkers to cut their working days to only three or four a week, while part timers are essentially idle. Port officials largely blame US-China trade tensions that make cargo unaffordable and contribute to economic uncertainty.
• The tariff uncertainty of the Trump administration is causing freight importers headaches in not only increased and unexpected costs, but in operations and financial planning as well. Businesses have been all over the place stockpiling goods ahead of tariffs, pausing shipments altogether, or raising prices. The main US entry points for Chinese goods - the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in California - saw a 25% increase in import containers in January as goods were stockpiled. Canadian and Mexican factories grew inventories at record levels in December and January, before leveling off and even falling in February as US companies rushed to import goods. Freight forwarder Kuehne + Nagel reports that cross-border trade between Mexico and the US fell sharply at the end of 2024 in preparation for tariffs and have still not rebounded.