Fuel Oil & LP Gas Dealers NAICS 457210

Dec 23, 2025 - Heating Costs to Rise This Winter

• Heating costs are expected to rise 9.2% this winter, The New York Times reported in December citing estimates from a group representing state energy officials. Rising winter energy costs amid reduced federal heating assistance create a challenging environment for home heating oil dealers. As electricity and natural gas prices surge and colder weather is forecast, some households may shift greater attention to managing overall heating expenses, potentially stabilizing or slightly increasing reliance on heating oil in regions where it remains competitive. However, the sharp reduction in federal aid for low‑income households heightens credit risk for dealers, who already carry significant customer receivables during winter months. More families falling behind on utility payments could lead to higher delinquency rates, tighter delivery schedules, and increased demand for budget plans or emergency deliveries. For oil dealers, this underscores the need for strong credit controls and customer‑payment management.
• Propane distributors looking to fill the driver shortage gap while potentially improving safety will want to consider an overlooked category: women drivers, LP Gas reports. Women are underrepresented in trucking in general, with a 2024 survey by the Women in Trucking Association finding that an average of 9.5% of all professional truck drivers who hold CDLs (commercial driver’s licenses) are women. Women tend to be very risk averse, decreasing their likelihood of being involved in a collision. Indeed, a study conducted by Auburn University Harbert College of Business from 2010 to 2022 found that male truck drivers were 13.2% more likely to have a major unsafe driving violation. Strategies for propane dealers to attract more women drivers include simply encouraging more women to apply, offering flexible schedules and protective equipment that fit women, and on-the-job opportunities for professional development and apprenticeship programs.

• Sales of heat pumps saw continued growth at the end of 2024, outpacing sales of gas furnaces for home heating, The Wall Street Journal reported in January. While new heat pump shipments have been outpacing gas furnaces since 2022, heat pump sales may have gotten a boost recently due to fears that the fossil-fuel-friendly Trump administration could do away with tax breaks and other financial incentives meant to spur US consumers to electrify their homes. “Over 2024, there’s definitely a substantial increase in the sales of heat pumps relative to furnaces,” Russell Unger, a principal at RMI who works on building decarbonization, told WSJ. Unger says he’s hopeful the heat pump incentives will remain available in the coming years. Currently, homeowners can claim tax credits of up to $2,000 for electric heat pump installations, and additional state-administered rebates worth thousands more are slowly rolling out into the marketplace, according to WSJ.
• Employment by fuel oil dealers shrank 4.8% in August compared to a year ago, while average wages at gasoline stations and fuel dealers rose 3.1% over the same period to $18.50 per hour, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Sales and employment by fuel oil dealers are highly seasonal, peaking during the “winter heating season," (November through March) and bottoming out in the summer months. Looking ahead, sales for the US fuel oil and LP gas dealers industry are forecast to decline at a 0.24% compounded annual rate from 2025 to 2029, slower than the growth of the overall economy, according to the latest forecast by the Interindustry Economic Research Fund.