Gift and Souvenir Stores NAICS 459420

Jan 6, 2026 - Slower Growth Forecast

• Sales for the US gift and souvenir stores industry are projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.07% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report projects sluggish but positive economic growth in the coming years. Factors that continue to limit consumer spending are lower consumer sentiment levels, higher interest levels, and elevated price levels. Real disposable income is being limited by a slow rise of employment and higher consumption prices, with a projected increase of real disposable income of 1.8% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The report noted that some shifts in consumer behavior persisted in 2025, including increased online shopping.
• Holiday 2025 spending trends suggest a stable but competitive environment for the gift and souvenir stores industry, according to a report in Gifts and Decorative Accessories. Overall US holiday retail spending rose 4.2% year over year, with 73% of payment volume occurring in physical stores, benefiting in-person gift purchases and impulse buying, per data from the Visa Consulting & Analytics’ Retail Spend Monitor,. While e-commerce grew 7.8%, brick-and-mortar remained the primary channel for seasonal spending. Categories closely tied to gifting showed mixed results: home décor and furnishings increased just 0.8%, indicating steady but cautious demand, while general merchandise rose 3.7% as consumers favored one-stop shopping. Apparel (+5.3%) and electronics (+5.8%) outperformed, intensifying competition for discretionary dollars. Visa also noted that AI-driven shopping tools made consumers more intentional, increasing price sensitivity. For gift and souvenir retailers, these dynamics point to stable traffic but continued pressure to differentiate through unique products, in-store experiences, and value-focused assortments.

• US consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 this holiday season, marking the second-highest total in 23 years and presenting gift store retailers with an opportunity to capitalize on seasonal demand, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Per the report, online shopping remains the most popular destination, followed by department stores and grocery outlets. Of the total spend, $627.93 will go toward gifts, with the remainder allocated to food, decorations, and greeting cards. Early shopping remains popular, though 63% of consumers expect to make most purchases during Thanksgiving weekend. Retailers are responding with competitive promotions and value-driven assortments to meet demand amid economic concerns and tariff pressures. Gift cards and clothing top wish lists.
• Consumer sentiment in December 2025 signaled a cautious spending environment for the US retail sector. The University of Michigan Index rose 3.7% month over month to 52.9, though confidence remains 30% below December 2024, and 63% of consumers expect rising unemployment. Inflation expectations eased to 4.2% (1 year) and 3.2% (long run), offering modest relief but not enough to shift overall caution. Meanwhile, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1, with the Present Situation Index down 9.5 points and expectations holding at a recession associated 70.7. Consumers continue shifting spending toward essential, lower cost categories. For US retailers, these indicators point to ongoing pressure on discretionary spending, softer demand for big ticket items, and continued strength in value oriented and necessity driven segments. Retailers may face a slow growth environment as consumers prioritize affordability and delay nonessential purchases.