Glass and Glazing Contractors NAICS 238150

Sep 7, 2025 - Weak Nonresidential Building Construction Spending

• Construction spending for nonresidential buildings is expected to remain sluggish in 2025 and 2026, according to the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) most recent Consensus Construction Forecast. Total spending for nonresidential building construction is expected to rise 1.7% in 2025 and 2% in 2026 after increasing 2% in 2024. For the next two years, growth will be led by data centers. Spending on institutional projects should remain steady as they are less susceptible to cyclical factors. AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker said, “A multitude of factors are preventing substantive growth in nonresidential construction. Stubbornly high long-term interest rates, falling consumer confidence scores, rising tariff rates for many inputs to construction and construction labor shortages exacerbated by restrictive immigration policies are limiting prospects for positive sustained growth.”
• New single-family home sales fell 0.6% month-over-month and were down 8.2% year-over-year in July 2025, according to the US Census Bureau. July’s total new home sales reached 652,000 units. However, home sales beat analysts’ outlook; economists polled by Reuters had expected July sales to reach only 630,000 units. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve has hinted at a possible rate cut during the central bank’s meeting in September. However, Fed rate policy will likely depend heavily on August employment and inflation data due in September. High mortgage rates continue to outpace wage growth, keeping home purchases out of reach for many would-be buyers. Some industry watchers expect new home sales to remain under pressure from interest rates through the end of the year.

• In the second quarter of 2025, there were about 12,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) housing starts in the US, down 52% from the same period in 2024, according to National Association of Home Builders analysis of US Census Bureau data. During the four most recent quarters, 71,000 SFBFR homes began construction, down 16% compared to how many were built in the previous four-quarter period. While the historical four-quarter moving average market share for SFBFR is about 2.7% (1992-2012), SFBFR’s current share of the overall single-family market is about 7%. Single-family built-for-rent homes provide an alternative for consumers who want more space but are challenged by a lack of affordable housing inventory and downpayment requirements in the for-sale market. However, SFBFR housing starts have slowed as high financing costs have reduced development activity.
• The Trump administration’s proposed $27 billion cut to federal rental assistance programs—amounting to a 43% reduction—has triggered concern across the affordable housing sector, stalling projects and shaking lender confidence, according to The Wall Street Journal. Some developers have halted construction due to postponed Section 8 subsidies, while lenders cite uncertainty over HUD funding as a significant deterrent. Although the House Appropriations Committee rejected the overhaul, HUD continues lobbying for the cuts, which would slash its budget by 44%. Critics warn that the move could destabilize the housing system, jeopardizing billions in multifamily loans and undermining gains from recent tax law changes that expanded the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit. Despite these incentives, developers argue that new affordable units may lack the operating revenue to remain viable without voucher programs.