Hair Care Services NAICS 812111, 812112

Apr 16, 2025 - Higher Growth Forecast

• The US hair care services industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.9% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is faster than the overall economy's anticipated growth. Hair care services are part of the “other services” sector, which is driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. Factors that may limit consumer spending are higher tariffs on consumer goods, which may be painful for households. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• Hair care providers may want to prepare for possible changes in demand created by falling consumer confidence, with levels declining 7.2 points to 92.9 in March 2025 month over month, according to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist of Global Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that the segment driving March’s decline was consumers over 55 years old, and the decline spanned all income groups with the exception being households earning over $125,000. Per Guichard, “Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022.” Purchasing plans for homes and new cars declined while big-ticket purchases rose on a six-month moving average basis, which may reflect plans to purchase certain items before impending tariffs lead to price increases.

• According to a new report in Salon Today, salons, waxing centers, and medspas averaged a 24% boost in membership in 2024 compared to a year ago, showing consumer interest in this approach. Membership programs increase the number of customers who visit more than five times a year by 10% and benefit salons by providing reliable recurring revenue and building long-term client relationships. The 2025 Beauty and Wellness Benchmark Report by Zenoti found that the beauty and wellness industry showed a 2% increase in growth in 2024 compared to 5% in 2023. Businesses that focused on adding locations in 2024 saw a 5% increase in revenue. Customer loyalty also stood out as a vital income generator, with 42% of loyal clients driving 80% of revenue. The Zenoti report analyzed performance data from its database of 30,000 businesses, including salons, nail salons, barbershops, waxing centers, spas, and medical spas.
• Salons may find clients more amenable to so-called “green fees” than expected, according to a survey by Sustain Beauty reported in American Salon. About a third of the beauty professionals polled in the survey said they were opposed to the practice of adding surcharges to salon tickets to offset sustainable business costs over concerns they would alienate their clients. About 70% of consumers polled, however, said they would pay a premium for sustainable salons services, and would pay on average about 20% more than the average salon is charging for a green surcharge. Of beauty professionals who said they charged a green fee, the average cost was $3 per visit and the highest was $10 per visit. The most common reason to charge a fee for a salon was to cover recycling costs (80%) and carbon offsetting (30%). The survey identified some hurdles that salons face when deciding whether to charge a fee, such as concerns about lack of transparency, preconceived ideas about customer attitudes toward the practice, and a belief that additional costs should be absorbed by the business instead of being passed along to clientele.