Hardware, Plumbing & HVAC Distributors NAICS 4237

Nov 22, 2025 - Top Home Improvement Players Notch Tougher Q3

• Hardware, plumbing, and HVAC distributors could see demand soften amid a weak housing market and more cautious home improvement spending. Home Depot and Lowe’s faced headwinds in the third quarter as housing market weakness and economic uncertainty dampened home improvement demand, according to Retail Dive. Home Depot’s net sales rose 2.8% over Q3 2024, boosted by its $900 million acquisition of GMS, but net income fell 1.3%. Comparable sales were nearly flat. Lowe’s reported a 3% year-over-year sales increase, with gains in pro sales, home services, and online purchases, though net income fell 4.7%. Both retailers cited weaker demand for large discretionary projects and revised their outlooks downward. Each continues to target professional customers, with Home Depot acquiring GMS and Lowe’s planning to acquire Foundation Building Materials. The sector remains pressured by cautious consumers and limited housing activity.
• HVAC equipment manufacturer Trane Technologies posted strong third-quarter results, driven by a 30% year-over-year surge in commercial HVAC bookings, while residential bookings fell sharply, according to Facilities Dive. Overall revenue rose 4% compared to Q3 2024, with record bookings and commercial HVAC revenue up 20%. Commercial HVAC now accounts for over 90% of Trane’s order backlog. Services revenue, which accounts for about one-third of total company revenue, continues to grow steadily, supported by investments in technician training and connected solutions. Trane anticipates long-term growth from data center demand, having booked several large orders and collaborated with NVIDIA on thermal systems for gigawatt-scale facilities.

• America’s largest homebuilders are struggling to sell new homes despite offering 4% mortgages and deep discounts, according to The Wall Street Journal. D.R. Horton and Lennar have slashed prices and added incentives, but demand remains weak, pushing unsold inventory to levels last seen in 2009. Builders are slowing construction, with D.R. Horton cutting starts by 21% year over year for the three-month period through September. Regional gluts in Texas, Florida, Southern California, and Washington, DC reflect rising resale competition, fewer foreign buyers, and economic uncertainty. Investor activity is at a 15-year low, with institutional buyers demanding steep discounts that builders won’t meet. New homes, often located in less desirable areas and targeted at first-time buyers, are more challenging to sell. Weak homebuilding activity can lead to a decline in demand for hardware, plumbing supplies, and HVAC equipment.
• North American construction and engineering spending in 2026 is expected to rise 1% after decreasing an estimated 1% in 2025, according to FMI’s fourth-quarter 2025 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook. Multifamily construction is expected to decline by 2% in 2026, amid oversupply in some key markets and weak rent growth. Single-family construction is projected to rise by 1% in 2026, as stubbornly high interest rates and elevated home prices continue to reduce demand. Commercial construction spending is forecast to decline by 4% in 2026 as retail store closures surpass openings for the first time in a decade and warehouse vacancies remain high. Lodging construction is expected to decline by 2% in 2026, amid sluggish business travel growth and as financing conditions and maturing debt pose headwinds. Even as vacancy rates remain high, office construction spending is expected to grow 7% in 2026, driven by the expansion of data centers and the conversion of offices to multifamily use. Federal funding cuts are projected to result in flat educational construction spending in 2026, while healthcare projects are expected to see a 3% increase.