Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturers NAICS 336120

Aug 11, 2025 - Heavy Duty Truck Orders Plummet

• Heavy duty truck orders fell significantly in Q2 2025 amid low demand from freight carriers with tariff concerns and the rescinding of EV mandates driving the dip. According to Freight Transportation Research (FTR), the most recent 12-month sales cycle that ended in July showed a 15% year-over-year drop in new truck orders. The industry expects the sector’s performance for the rest of the year to be even worse. Engine maker Cummins CEO Jennifer Rumsey said in a recent earnings call that the company expects demand for North American heavy and medium duty trucks to dip by as much as 30% by the end of Q3. “The duration of this reduced demand in North America truck markets will largely depend on the trajectory of the broader economy, the evolution of trade and tariff policies and the pace at which regulatory clarity emerges,” said Rumsey.
• The US House of Representatives and the Senate voted in May 2025 to undo waivers from the Environmental Protection Agency that allowed California to set aggressive vehicle pollution standards in its state. It is the latest attempt by Congress to set aside California’s mandates for trucking’s transformation to electric vehicles (EVs) and its plan for 35% of new automobiles sold to be zero-emission. California is one of the nation’s biggest auto markets and a dozen other states, who can’t set standards of their own, nevertheless followed California’s lead on EVs. Accordingly, roughly 30% of the US auto market could be affected since they followed the Golden State’s lead. Trucking trade associations and auto makers, who have long felt the targets were unrealistic and overly aggressive, supported the move. Trump signed off on the changes, and California has indicated it might sue to get the rules reinstated.

• Sales of heavy duty trucks sank 13.9% year over year in February 2025, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as companies pulled back on spending due to tariffs and overall economic anxiety. Companies are reluctant to spend money on big capital purchases, like semi trucks, when they see tariffs causing widespread disruption on import prices and supply chains. Also contributing to the dip in heavy duty truck sales volume is low demand. Fleet sizes are at overcapacity and the surplus contributes to lower freight rates, which squeezes profitability and discourages freight transporters from investing in new trucks. Other factors keeping truck buyers away is uncertainty about what kind of electric vehicle mandates the industry might face and high interest rates and financing costs. The gloomy industry outlook means carriers are instead maintaining their current fleets as long as possible.
• Inventories of heavy duty trucks rose 9% according to the latest US Census Bureau - reflecting a turbulent time for heavy duty truck manufacturers as current and potential new tariffs slow truck orders amidst the uncertainty. Trailer orders were up 3% in February year over year, but fell 18% from the previous month, per data from freight economic forecasting firm FTR. It is a reverse from last year when fleets were ordering more power rigs than trailers. However, the effect of tariffs on trailer orders could further depress orders as the year goes on. Steel and aluminum tariffs in particular could raise the price of not only imported trailers but domestic ones as well if they include large amounts of parts from Mexico and/or Canada.