Hobby, Toy and Game Stores NAICS 459120

Dec 28, 2025 - Slower Growth Forecast

• The US hobby, toy, and game stores industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.51% between 2025 and 2029, according to an updated forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report projects sluggish but positive economic growth in the coming years. Factors that continue to limit consumer spending are lower consumer sentiment levels, higher interest levels, and elevated price levels. Real disposable income is being limited by a slow rise of employment and higher consumption prices, with a projected increase of real disposable income of 1.8% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The report noted that some shifts in consumer behavior persisted in 2025, including increased online shopping.
• Consumer sentiment in December 2025 pointed to a cautious economic climate for the US hobby, toy, and game retailer industry. The University of Michigan Index rose 3.7% month over month to 52.9 but remained 30% below December 2024, and 63% of consumers still expect unemployment to increase. Inflation expectations eased to 4.2% for the next year and 3.2% long term, yet overall confidence stayed subdued. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1, with current condition assessments weakening and expectations holding at recession associated levels. As households shift spending toward essential, lower cost categories, retailers in this sector face softer demand for discretionary items, slower sales of premium toys and collectibles, and heightened price sensitivity. Value oriented products, budget friendly games, and promotional strategies are likely to perform more steadily as consumers prioritize affordability.

• While six services industries reported contraction in October, 11 industries reported growth, including the Retail Trade industry, according to an ISM Services PMI Report. Other industries reporting growth during the period were Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services. Industries reporting contraction during the period include Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Other Industries; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; and Construction. Overall economic activity in the services sector returned to expansion in October, registering 52.4%.
• According to recently released Circana data, US toy sales rose 6% in the first half of 2025 and units sold were up 3%, an improvement over a lackluster performance in 2024. Average selling prices were up 3% in the first half of the year, notable as the average selling price has been flat for three consecutive years. The categories reporting the most growth during the period were puzzles and games (39%), explorative toys (19%), youth electronics (9%), action figures (8%), and building sets (7%). Sales of licensed toys were up 18% in the first half of 2025. Adults continue to drive growth for the market, with sales up 18% for recipients aged 18 and older. According to Juli Lennett, VP and toy industry advisor at Circana, “The toy industry is showing strength during this period as consumers are holding their breath and waiting for higher prices to kick in.”