Hobby, Toy and Game Stores NAICS 459120

Aug 26, 2025 - US Toy Sales Improve

• According to recently released Circana data, US toy sales rose 6% in the first half of 2025 and units sold were up 3%, an improvement over a lackluster performance in 2024. Average selling prices were up 3% in the first half of the year, notable as the average selling price has been flat for three consecutive years. The categories reporting the most growth during the period were puzzles and games (39%), explorative toys (19%), youth electronics (9%), action figures (8%), and building sets (7%). Sales of licensed toys were up 18% in the first half of 2025. Adults continue to drive growth for the market, with sales up 18% for recipients aged 18 and older. According to Juli Lennett, VP and toy industry advisor at Circana, “The toy industry is showing strength during this period as consumers are holding their breath and waiting for higher prices to kick in.”
• Indicators measuring the collective mood of US consumers show mixed signals, with consumer confidence levels slightly up and consumer sentiment falling. Consumer confidence levels, an indicator of discretionary expenditures, improved in July 2025, month over month, rising by 2 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence levels have stabilized since May but remain lower than last year’s, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. July’s gain can be attributed to consumers over 35 years old and shared across all income groups, except the lowest income group earning below $15K. In addition, the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan dropped in August 2025 for the first time in four months. The index fell to 58.6 in preliminary August data from 61.7 in July. Year-ahead inflation expectation results were higher monthly, as consumers convey lingering anxiety about prices amid tariff impacts. The index serves as a predictor of consumer spending as it indicates consumers’ perception of their financial prospects and the broader economy.

• According to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal, retailers are cutting back on free shipping to offset tariff costs. Some retailers are eliminating free shipping, while others are raising the amount that customers must spend to qualify for free shipping, as a way to pass along higher costs to consumers. One fashion lunchbox retailer has raised the threshold for shoppers to qualify for free shipping to $300 from $150. Retail-technology provider Narvar noted that the average minimum-order threshold for retailers to offer free shipping has increased from $82 in 2023 to $103 in 2025. Adjusting the shipping price is appealing to retailers since it does not change the front-facing shopping price to consumers, per Narvar CEO Anisa Kumar. Officials at toy seller Lovevery said customer research showed that removing free shipping was “one of the least objectionable things we could do,” noting they have not lost many customers as a result.
• The US hobby, toy, and game stores industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.55% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services, but noted that consumers so far have maintained spending on goods even as travel and live entertainment spending has risen.