Home Furnishings Stores NAICS 44912

Sep 23, 2025 - Tariffs, Housing Weigh on Sector Confidence

• According to Furniture Today, the Q3 2025 Home Furnishings Sentiment Index fell to a record low of 38, reflecting widespread concern among home furniture and furnishings retailers and manufacturers about current business conditions. Sales, employment, and capital spending sentiment all declined, with 74% of respondents rating the present climate as fair or poor. However, longer-term optimism remains. Expectations for business conditions over the next six months rose to an index score of 95, while employment and investment outlooks also improved. Consumer demand sentiment rebounded 18 points quarter over quarter to 88, signaling cautious confidence. Tariffs, housing market trends, and consumer sentiment remain top concerns, while supply chain and inflation worries eased slightly. Businesses must navigate economic headwinds while preparing for renewed demand, making strategic planning and agility essential for sustained growth.
• Home furnishings stores may benefit from an expected 5% increase in dorm/apartment furnishings spending in 2025, reaching $12.8 billion, according to an annual back-to-college spending survey by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights and Analytics in Home Furnishings News. In addition to dorm or apartment furnishings, the other top back-to-campus spending categories were electronics, clothing and accessories, food, and personal care items. Total back-to-college spending is expected to reach $88.8 billion in 2025, up from $86.6 billion a year ago. While overall spending is on the rise, the per-person spending for back-to-college fell to an average of $1,325 from $1,364 in 2024, which can be attributed to higher-income households continuing to spend while lower-income households cut back across categories due to economic uncertainty. College-bound families are making budget-minded choices, such as buying used or refurbished items and using buy now or pay later services.

• US consumer mood indicators have weakened, signaling potential headwinds for spending. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.3 points in August 2025, with the decline driven by younger consumers under 35, while confidence among those over 55 improved. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index slipped to 55.4 in early September from 58.2 in August, down 21% year over year. Inflation expectations held steady, but persistent worries about prices and tariff impacts remain. Consumer sentiment and confidence are leading indicators of discretionary spending, which drives two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. A continued slump suggests households may curb purchases and delay big-ticket decisions, raising risks for retailers, service providers, and the broader economy.
• The US home furnishings stores industry is projected to grow at a 2.65% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, slower than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. Retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. Another factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. In 2025 and into the forecast period, real disposable income may be supported by continuing nominal wage growth, lower inflation rates, and higher employment levels. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation.