HVAC & Plumbing Contractors NAICS 238220

May 17, 2026 - HVAC, Water Heating Equipment Shipments Mixed

• US shipment volume of central air conditioners increased 0.1% year over year in March 2026, according to the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments of air-source heat pumps rose 9.8% in March compared to a year earlier. Shipments of residential gas storage water heaters declined 2.9% in March, and residential electric storage water heater shipments fell 5.7%. March shipments of commercial gas storage water heaters increased 2.0% year over year, and commercial electric storage water heater shipments rose 12.3%. Gas warm air furnace shipments decreased 15.3% in March from a year earlier, while shipments of oil warm air furnaces increased 37.5%.
• The total value of private construction put in place increased 0.8% in March compared to February, according to the US Census Bureau. Private spending on nonresidential projects decreased 0.2% and residential spending rose 1.7%. Residential spending was led by a 2.7% rise in single-family construction. Multifamily construction spending rose 0.3%. Within the nonresidential segment, pockets of private spending growth included amusement and recreation, which saw March growth of 1.3% over the previous month, followed by office, which includes data centers (+1.1%), religious (+3.3%), transportation (+0.4%), and power (+0.2%). Most other nonresidential segments saw flat or reduced spending in November. Private spending on nonresidential structures has been in negative territory for nine consecutive quarters, the longest period of contraction on record, according to Reuters. Industry observers suggest the inflationary effects of the war with Iran, along with tariffs, are increasing builders' costs.

• Home remodeling spending growth is expected to slow significantly early in 2027, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) report released in May by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. Homeowner spending on improvements and repairs is expected to increase 1.8% to $516 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared to Q2 2025. In the third quarter of 2026, remodeling spending will trend slightly upward to $518 billion, up 2.4% from Q3 2025. Spending will then remain flat at $518 billion in Q4 2026, up 1.8% from Q4 2025. In the first quarter of 2027, year-over-year spending is forecast to rise just 0.5% to $523 billion. Remodeling permitting and building product sales have remained flat recently, but homeowners are expected to maintain spending near 2025 levels. Remodeling spending is likely to remain subdued, barring a turnaround in the construction sector.
• A surge in U.S. data center growth is intensifying skilled labor shortages, creating longer hiring times for HVAC contractors and electricians than for software developers, according to Randstad North America and reporting by Facilities Dive. The average hiring period for skilled trades has reached 56 days, compared with 54 days for tech roles, underscoring rising demand for HVAC expertise as AI-driven infrastructure expands. Retirements and limited career development are shrinking the talent pool, while more than 30% of Gen Z workers have left jobs due to a lack of advancement. For HVAC contractors, this tight labor market threatens project timelines, service capacity, and operational continuity. Randstad urges firms to adopt strategic hiring, invest in upskilling, and offer predictable schedules and work-life balance to attract and retain technicians, while using contract labor to address urgent workforce gaps.