HVACR Equipment Manufacturers NAICS 3334

Jul 16, 2025 - New Tax & Spending Law Cuts Tax Incentives for HVAC Upgrades

• A budget reconciliation law signed by President Trump in July includes provisions that will prompt an early sunset of tax credits for several types of residential energy efficiency improvements. The Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentivized homeowners to make energy efficiency upgrades, including purchasing electric heat pump HVAC systems. The tax credits and rebates were set to be in place for 10 years, but the budget reconciliation law of 2025 ends the tax credits at the end of this year. The IRA also made permanent 179D tax deductions for energy efficiency upgrades for commercial buildings, including HVAC. The new law eliminates 179D tax deductions effective June 30, 2026.
• New single-family home sales fell 13.7% month-over-month and were down 6.3% year-over-year in May 2025, according to the US Census Bureau. May’s total new home sales reached 623,000 units. According to Dow Jones estimates, Wall Street analysts had expected May sales to reach 695,000. In recent quarterly reports, some homebuilders said high interest rates and weaker consumer confidence weighed on demand. As sales of new homes remain soft, inventories of unsold homes are increasing. At the end of May, there were 507,000 new homes for sale, up 15% compared to May 2024. The number of unsold new homes in May was the highest since the summer of 2022, after the Federal Reserve began increasing interest rates.

• Apartment construction is increasingly shifting away from dense urban centers toward less populated and more affordable regions, according to the NAHB’s Q1 2025 Home Building Geography Index and reporting by Smart Cities Dive. Since 2016, large metro core counties have seen a 9.6 percentage-point drop in market share for apartment starts, hitting a low of 35.5%. The trend is fueled by affordability concerns, demographic shifts—especially the rise of older renters seeking suburban lifestyles—and project owners favoring lower-cost developments in exurbs and rural areas. Developers are pursuing projects farther out where land is cheaper and expansion is easier, though total activity in these areas remains relatively small.
• The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) reading for the second quarter of 2025 was 59, down four points from the first quarter, according to a July 2025 report by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Any RMI reading over 50 indicates that most remodelers feel market conditions are good. In the second quarter, the Current Conditions Index portion of the RMI fell five points to 66 compared to Q1 2025. The Future Indicators Index component of the RMI declined by four points to 51. While the RMI remained solidly in positive territory in Q2 2025, the NAHB noted that high interest rates and waning consumer confidence continue to pose challenges to the remodeling industry.