Jewelry Stores NAICS 458310

May 7, 2025 - Slower Growth Forecast

• Sales for the US jewelry stores industry are projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.64% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services.
• Fewer jewelry businesses were operating in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to data from the Jewelers Board of Trade (JBT) reported in Rapaport. The total number of companies active in the US in the first quarter was 22,330, which is nearly 3.4% fewer than the same quarter in the previous year. Retailers accounted for 16,959 of the industry, a decline of 3.5% year over year. During Q1 2025, 212 businesses exited the sector, a nearly 20% decrease from the same quarter a year ago. Of the businesses that exited the sector, three went bankrupt, 34 closed due to mergers or takeovers, and 175 closed for other reasons. The number of new businesses during the quarter fell to 90, compared to 94 a year earlier.

• Resourcing factories, disrupting diamond flow, and raising prices are several potential impacts on the jewelry industry from new Trump Administration policies imposing new tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, according to a JCK Online report. Industry experts noted that companies focused on fashion jewelry with operations in China would be immediately affected by tariffs. According to Richline CEO and president Dave Meleski, the fine jewelry manufacturer is resourcing its products from its factory in China to countries not currently affected by the trade war. He said tariff volatility may negatively affect the metals market and worries that an escalation in gold prices could dampen consumer sales. The flow of diamonds from Canada may be affected by the trade wars; Canada exported some $88 million in diamonds to the US in 2023. Canada has announced a new retaliatory 25% levy on several categories of jewelry originating from the US.
• According to a report in CFO Dive, consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, fell in large part due to tariff uncertainty and an expectation of higher prices. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”