Jewelry Stores NAICS 458310

Mar 5, 2026 - Court Ruling Opens Door to Tariff Refunds for Jewelers

• The US jewelry industry could receive significant tariff refunds after a US Court of International Trade ruling ordered Customs and Border Protection to reimburse duties imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), according to a report by JCK Online. The refunds could total about $175 billion across industries, offering potential financial relief for jewelry companies that paid tariffs over the past year on imported materials and finished goods. However, the timeline remains uncertain as the administration is expected to appeal the ruling, and industry leaders say companies must wait to see how the refund process unfolds. Historically, tariff refunds can take time—the government’s 1998 refund case took two years to complete. Jewelry companies are being advised to gather documentation and prepare to receive electronic refunds. The ruling does not apply to the current 10% global tariff, which may rise to 15%, meaning tariff-related cost pressures could continue.
• US consumer confidence showed modest improvement in February, creating a mixed demand outlook for the jewelry store industry, according to leading indicators. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose 2.2 points to 91.2, though it remains below its November 2024 peak of 112.8. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edged up to 56.6, but is still 12.5% lower year over year, reflecting cautious consumer attitudes. Inflation pressures remain a key concern, with 46% of consumers citing high prices as eroding personal finances. For jewelry retailers, the data signals uneven spending potential. While plans to purchase big-ticket items increased, broader spending trends show consumers prioritizing essential services and lower-cost activities over highly discretionary purchases. Confidence gains among higher-income consumers and major stockholders could support demand for fine jewelry, but weaker sentiment among lower-income households may limit broader category growth in the near term.

• The US jewelry stores industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.77% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report projects sluggish but positive economic growth in the coming years. Factors that continue to limit consumer spending are lower consumer sentiment levels, higher interest levels, and elevated price levels. Real disposable income is being limited by a slow rise of employment and higher consumption prices, with a projected increase of real disposable income of 1.8% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The report noted that some shifts in consumer behavior persisted in 2025, including increased online shopping.
• A new AlixPartners survey of 9,000 consumers ranked Tiffany & Co as the top jeweler overall, favored for accessibility, product, and experience, according to reporting in JCK Online. Tiffany led among Gen X and millennials, while Gen Z preferred Cartier, and baby boomers favored Signet-owned brands like Kay and Zales. Tiffany and Cartier were the only brands cited across all age groups, highlighting their broad generational appeal. Despite a 5% growth in jewelry sales in 2024, AlixPartners forecasts softer demand in 2025 due to economic uncertainty. Jewelers should note that “service” overtook other factors as the top consumer priority, followed by accessibility and product. Nearly half of respondents still consider in-store shopping essential, reinforcing the importance of brick-and-mortar presence. These insights suggest that jewelers must tailor offerings by generation, emphasize service quality, and maintain strong physical retail strategies to navigate shifting consumer preferences.