Land Subdivision NAICS 237210

Nov 7, 2025 - Homebuilders Cautiously Optimistic

• Home builder confidence in the single-family market improved in October but remained solidly in negative territory, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Home builder sentiment, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), rose five points to 37 in October 2025 compared to September's reading of 32. Any HMI reading over 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as good than poor. October's HMI marked the highest reading since April 2025. Builders are cautiously optimistic as the average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 6.3%, and the Federal Reserve is expected to ease interest rates further later in the year. However, the housing market remains challenging as many would-be buyers stay on the sidelines waiting for lower mortgage rates.
• North American construction and engineering spending for residential projects in 2026 is expected to rise 1% after decreasing an estimated 3% in 2025, according to FMI’s fourth-quarter 2025 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook. Multifamily construction is expected to decrease by 2% in 2026, amid oversupply in some key markets and weak rent growth. Spending for Multifamily projects is forecast to drop 1% in 2027 before rising 5% in 2027, 8% in 2028, and 9% in 2029. Single-family construction is projected to rise 1% in 2026, as stubbornly high interest rates and elevated home prices reduce demand. However, single-family spending is projected to improve gradually, rising 2% in 2027, 4% in 2028, and 5% in 2029. Commercial construction spending is forecast to decline by 4% in 2026 as retail store closures surpass openings for the first time in a decade and warehouse vacancies remain high.

• During a webinar in October, Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) chief economist Anirban Basu warned of tightening conditions for the U.S. construction industry, with rising interest rates, material costs, and financing challenges threatening project viability, according to Construction Dive. While data center construction remains strong, driven by investments in AI infrastructure, other sectors, such as commercial, manufacturing, and public infrastructure, are cooling due to tariffs, saturated markets, and dwindling government funding. Contractors outside the data center space report shrinking backlogs and reduced deal flow. The expiration of federal infrastructure funding in 2026 may further dampen demand.
• While the availability of lots for building single-family homes has improved since the pandemic, lot shortages remain a challenge for builders, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). In a recent NAHB survey of builders, 64% reported coping with some level of shortage, with 38% saying lot supplies were “low” and 26% saying they were “very low.” The share of builders reporting shortages peaked in 2021 at 76%, about a year into the pandemic. However, the percentage of builders experiencing lot shortages has remained above 60% since 2015. In addition to the scarcity of available lots, builders continue to face other stubborn headwinds, including high materials costs, tight credit availability, and attracting enough skilled labor.