Local General Freight Trucking NAICS 484110

Nov 6, 2025 - Trucking Volume Shrinks in Q3

• The trucking market slid back in Q3 as the brief spring rebound reversed, leaving carriers squeezed by weak volumes and shifting capacity, according to US Bank data. National shipment volumes fell 10.7% year-over-year, and the US Bank Shipments Index dropped 2.9% sequentially, signaling the market’s renewed contraction. Major carriers showed mixed but troubling results: Old Dominion’s LTL tonnage per day fell about 9%, TFI International’s tonnage declined 7.4%, and FedEx Freight saw average daily freight pounds slide roughly 12%. XPO offset a 6.1% tonnage drop with a 5.7% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight, but overall demand remains soft. Shipper spend rose 2% sequentially as fleets exit capacity and fuel surcharges bite. With manufacturing contracting, truckload and LTL volumes look likely to stay under pressure into 2025 unless demand rebounds.
• US for-hire truck freight tonnage slipped 0.9% in September 2025, according to the American Trucking Association, following two months of modest gains. The ATA Truck Tonnage Index fell to 114.2 from 115.3 in August, reflecting ongoing softness in freight demand despite some improvement earlier in the year. Year-to-date, tonnage is up just 0.2% from 2024 levels and remains about 3.9% below its peak three years ago. The decline highlights continued weakness in manufacturing output and retail shipments, key drivers of freight volume. For the trucking industry, this sluggish demand means continued pressure on rates and fleet utilization, with many carriers delaying equipment purchases and trimming operations to maintain margins. Analysts say the market remains oversupplied, though gradual improvements in housing and consumer spending could stabilize volumes later in 2025. Most fleets face a competitive environment marked by tighter profits, excess capacity, and cautious expansion plans.

• US trucking capacity faces import volumes decline, especially at major inland hubs like Chicago, Dallas, and Las Vegas. According to the Journal of Commerce, truck availability at some inland hubs has dropped by 10-15% compared with the same time last year. Fewer containers arriving at ports means fewer trucks and drivers available to move goods further away from US coastal regions. The imbalance pushes spot rates higher and makes it harder for carriers to avoid deadheading. The empty miles from deadhead trips raise costs for both trucking companies and shippers. While overall freight demand has softened slightly, regional bottlenecks are growing, creating a slower flow of goods deeper inland. Industry experts warn that the longer the US engages in worldwide trade disputes, the disruptions and unpredictability of incoming trade volumes will continue to be a drag on the sector.
• Freight transportation forecaster FTR Transportation Intelligence downgraded its prediction for production levels of North American Class 8 trucks as the uncertainties in the market from US tariffs hamper new order demand. FTR’s adjusted prediction calls for shipments of about 240,000 Class 8 trucks in 2025, down from the previously estimated 288,000. Excess truck inventory and weak freight demand from tariffs have put the trucking industry in a bind and pushes a planned rebound of the industry into 2026 and maybe even 2027, per FTR experts. Equipment makers are pulling back on production to compensate, with Paccar - maker of Peterbilt and Kenmore trucks - scaling back its 2025 sales forecast, while engine maker Cummins delayed the launch of its latest heavy duty diesel engine from this year until the end of 2026. Trucking companies also worry about potential future tariffs on Class 8 trucks and parts themselves.