Local General Freight Trucking NAICS 484110

Jul 11, 2025 - Trucking Companies Expect Flat Demand Through the Rest of 2025

• Trucking companies expect freight demand to remain flat this year as the industry heads into its busiest time of the year when retailers load up on back-to-school and holiday products. Whipsawing US tariff policies causing fast shifts in import and inventory volume hit trucking hard in a year when the industry expected to make a comeback from a three-year decline. The Cass Freight Index, which measures US shipping demand, fell 4% year over year in May as companies who stocked up on inventory ahead of tariffs now have less use for freight transportation, squelching demand. The overall effect is sinking freight rates, with the average contract rate for May at $2.36 a mile, down 7 cents from the previous year. The industry is also pulling back on investments with orders for heavy duty trucks in May falling to one of the lowest levels in two years, per ACT Research.
• Truck drivers must be able to proficiently read and speak English in order to haul freight in the United States or risk losing their license according to new guidance from the Department of Transportation (DOT). The policy allows authorities to pull over truck drivers and give them a roadside English test. If they don’t pass, they will be taken off the road, although there is some question about how state and local law enforcement will identify possible violations. Previously, drivers who were not English speakers were issued a ticket, but the new DOT policy removes the driver from the road altogether. The change is designed to improve highway safety by ensuring drivers can read road signs and signals, be able to communicate with the general public and officials, and write reports. According to forecaster FTR Intelligence, there were more than 15,000 English proficiency violations in the last two years.

• The trucking industry still struggles with the Great Freight Recession as bankruptcies for trucking and logistics companies continue to creep higher in 2025 as a result of the US trade war. Trucking saw a marked increase in bankruptcies so far in Q2, with about 17 freight carriers either going out of business or attempting to reorganize. So far this year there have been a total of about 20-25 total trucking companies declaring bankruptcy. Large and small, or regional or national, no carrier is immune to the decline in available freight from tariffs on imported goods. One week in June alone saw three major carriers file for relief - Dolce Truckload, Contract Managed Services, and GD Transport. Other carriers have simply shut down without filing or explanation, including Illinois-based LTI Trucking and Florida’s Davis Express, both in April. Industry analysts expect the trend to continue if progress isn’t made on trade policies.
• Trucking industry employment remained flat throughout 2024 and that trend has continued into 2025. Employment fell a slight 1.8% year over year in March 2025, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). A significant driver shortage brought on by attrition through retirements and younger-employee burnout in a stressful and isolating job has been hampering the industry. Truck drivers are in high demand and paid well as a result. An analysis of industry job postings by freight factoring company altLINE estimates that there is an ongoing deficit of 24,000 drivers. When combined with the average $3,900 per week a truck makes in revenue (using trucking giant Schneider National’s reported earnings), the staff shortage costs the freight industry $95 million a week.