Local General Freight Trucking NAICS 484110

Oct 24, 2025 - Trucking Freight Tonnage Slips

• US for-hire truck freight tonnage slipped 0.9% in September 2025, according to the American Trucking Association, following two months of modest gains. The ATA Truck Tonnage Index fell to 114.2 from 115.3 in August, reflecting ongoing softness in freight demand despite some improvement earlier in the year. Year-to-date, tonnage is up just 0.2% from 2024 levels and remains about 3.9% below its peak three years ago. The decline highlights continued weakness in manufacturing output and retail shipments, key drivers of freight volume. For the trucking industry, this sluggish demand means continued pressure on rates and fleet utilization, with many carriers delaying equipment purchases and trimming operations to maintain margins. Analysts say the market remains oversupplied, though gradual improvements in housing and consumer spending could stabilize volumes later in 2025. Most fleets face a competitive environment marked by tighter profits, excess capacity, and cautious expansion plans.
• US trucking capacity faces import volumes decline, especially at major inland hubs like Chicago, Dallas, and Las Vegas. According to the Journal of Commerce, truck availability at some inland hubs has dropped by 10-15% compared with the same time last year. Fewer containers arriving at ports means fewer trucks and drivers available to move goods further away from US coastal regions. The imbalance pushes spot rates higher and makes it harder for carriers to avoid deadheading. The empty miles from deadhead trips raise costs for both trucking companies and shippers. While overall freight demand has softened slightly, regional bottlenecks are growing, creating a slower flow of goods deeper inland. Industry experts warn that the longer the US engages in worldwide trade disputes, the disruptions and unpredictability of incoming trade volumes will continue to be a drag on the sector.

• Freight transportation forecaster FTR Transportation Intelligence downgraded its prediction for production levels of North American Class 8 trucks as the uncertainties in the market from US tariffs hamper new order demand. FTR’s adjusted prediction calls for shipments of about 240,000 Class 8 trucks in 2025, down from the previously estimated 288,000. Excess truck inventory and weak freight demand from tariffs have put the trucking industry in a bind and pushes a planned rebound of the industry into 2026 and maybe even 2027, per FTR experts. Equipment makers are pulling back on production to compensate, with Paccar - maker of Peterbilt and Kenmore trucks - scaling back its 2025 sales forecast, while engine maker Cummins delayed the launch of its latest heavy duty diesel engine from this year until the end of 2026. Trucking companies also worry about potential future tariffs on Class 8 trucks and parts themselves.
• FreightWaves’ latest data shows the national average length of haul hit an all-time low of 522 miles in August 2025, with long distance-trucking under pressure as shippers shift freight to intermodal transport. The long-haul segment (loads over 800 miles) has dipped the most, followed by the 450 to 800 mile segment. Only short-haul loads under 100 miles grew year-over-year, largely from warehousing and retail distribution. Overall truckload length of haul was about 8% higher year-over-year per FreightWaves, but industry experts think the gain may be seasonal. Rail’s cost advantage continues to erode long-haul demand, especially with shippers bringing in inventory early to avoid tariff risks. Because a single 800-mile move ties up two days of truck capacity versus a fraction of a day for local runs, even temporary rebounds could sharply impact spot rates.