Local General Freight Trucking NAICS 484110

Apr 28, 2025 - Truck Driver Turnover Rate Keeping Industry Wages Down

• A new report from the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association’s Research Foundation (OOIDA) questions the conventional wisdom that a driver shortage is to blame for industry woes, and instead points to structural issues causing a sometimes 90% annual turnover rate for truckload carriers. OOIDA notes that staff shortages usually lead to higher wages, but that isn’t happening in trucking due to factors hampering wage growth including extreme competition among carriers; limited collective bargaining power of drivers; increased labor pools from industry and government initiatives: and new drivers fostering misconceptions about pay and conditions when they sign on, leading to turnover when those expectations aren’t realized. Average wages for non-supervisory employees in the industry remained largely flat throughout 2024, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• Several of the ten states that have adopted California’s Advance Clean Trucking Programs (known as ACT) manufacturing model have eased mandates to increase the number of heavy-duty electric trucks by the end of 2025. New York is the latest state that is considering flexibility in the mandates, prompted by little progress on building EV charging infrastructure to power the trucks properly and not enough EV truck supply. Maryland and Massachusetts have already eased requirements and have called for more “bridge” solutions, such as increasing the use of biofuels, natural gas, and renewable diesel to still tackle the environmental challenges while states play catch-up on building EV infrastructure. Ironically, the aggressive timelines and costs have kept older trucks on the road longer, which has an adverse impact on environmental gains from electric trucks.

• Trucking executives are increasingly optimistic that the industry will find its way out of a prolonged, post-pandemic downturn in 2025. Shipping rates and volume have consistently been down amidst increased costs as consumer behavior after Covid has shifted away from buying consumer goods and towards services such as travel and events, according to the American Trucking Association’s chief economist Bob Costello. He predicts consumer spending on goods will bounce back and increase about 3.3% in 2025, while services will fall to 2.2%, helping trucking companies slowly regain their footing. Other positive signs for trucking cited by Costello include rising inflation on services that could tip consumer habits back towards goods purchases, and a healthier housing market, which can be a boon to trucking companies with increased orders on home improvement supplies and building materials.
• The on-again, off-again uncertainty of Trump’s tariffs against North American trade partners is beginning to roil the trucking industry, particularly on the Canadian border. In an effort to get ahead of tariff-induced cost increases, shippers are scrambling to accelerate shipments across borders, causing a spike in spot rates. Data from DAT Freight & Analytics shows that spot rates from US to Canada for dry bed, containers, and reefer trucks shot up by 35% to a two-year high by early March 2025. Before the latest tariff deadline, dry bed volume along the Toronto to Chicago trade route surged almost 60% in one week. It all adds up to a potential bumpy year for an industry that hauls 67% of surface trade-goods across the US/Canada border each year, according to the American Trucking Association.