Locksmiths NAICS 561622

Nov 20, 2025 - Bankruptcy Filings Up in October

• Commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, a demand indicator for business-related lock-changing services, rose 11% in October 2025 year over year, reaching 634 filings, according to Epiq AACER and ABI data. The total commercial filings increased 7% in October 2025 year over year, totaling 2,820 commercial filings. Small business filings, captured as Subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, increased 35% in October year over year. ABI Executive Director Amy Quakenboss said in a statement that persistent economic headwinds continue to weigh on financially distressed consumers and businesses.
• Demand for building design services, a forward-looking demand driver for locksmithing services, remained soft in October 2025, according to a report by the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The AIA’s Architecture Billing Index (ABI), an indicator of future drywall and insulation demand, was 47.2 in October, up from September’s reading of 43.3. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in architectural billings. In October, the score for new project inquiries was 54.8. By major sector, billings index growth in October was mostly in contraction territory including commercial/industrial (43.9), mixed practice (44), institutional (46.1), and multi-family residential (46.8).

• According to the Q3 2025 Jobber Home Service Economic Report, home service contracting businesses, which includes locksmiths, experienced a mixed third quarter in 2025, reflecting seasonal shifts in demand. Industry data shows new work dipped 1% year over year, but average invoice size rose 4%, and median revenue increased 5%, signaling stronger value per job despite fewer new projects. Late summer trends pointed to more urgent repairs and replacements, while September saw job counts rebound alongside smaller invoices, highlighting a pivot toward quicker turnaround and routine maintenance work. For locksmiths, this pattern underscores the importance of balancing emergency services with scheduled maintenance as fall activity picks up.
• Declining consumer confidence in late 2025 may create headwinds for locksmiths, particularly in discretionary service demand. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 94.6 from 95.6 in October, with stronger current conditions (129.3) offset by weaker short term expectations (71.5). Inflation expectations rose to 5.9%, and more than half of consumers anticipated higher interest rates. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 2.7% month over month to 53.6 in November, down 24% year over year, with the Expectations Index dropping 32.1% annually to 50.3. For locksmiths, this environment suggests households may delay non urgent services such as lock upgrades, smart lock installations, or security system enhancements, while focusing only on emergency needs. Rising costs could also pressure margins, as customers become more price sensitive and seek lower cost alternatives.