Locksmiths NAICS 561622

Jan 20, 2026 - Locksmiths See Modest Growth: Report

• According to the 2025 State of the Industry report in Locksmith Ledger, US locksmiths are experiencing a period of adaptation and moderate growth as business models shift and technology adoption accelerates. In 2025, 45% of locksmiths operate primarily as mobile businesses, while retail locksmith shops rebounded to 32%, up from 26.3% in 2024, signaling renewed demand for storefront services. Service diversification is driving impact: 85% now perform commercial door hardware installation (up from 75% in 2024), 54% offer stand-alone access control, and 30% provide networked access control, reflecting growing electronic integration. Financially, momentum is improving; 40.5% of locksmiths reported revenue growth in 2025, and 38.5% reported profit growth, while those reporting significant revenue decline fell to 13%. However, cost pressures remain acute, with 54.5% citing controlling costs as their top challenge and 18% already impacted by tariffs.
• For the US locksmiths industry, the latest Consumer Confidence Survey from the Conference Board points to a mixed operating environment shaped by softer economic sentiment but relatively resilient demand for essential services. US consumer confidence declined by 3.8 points, while the US Leading Economic Index fell 0.3%, signaling slowing momentum in the broader economy. Employment trends also weakened (down 0.35%), and CEO confidence dropped by 1.0 point, reflecting increased caution among businesses. For locksmiths, these conditions may restrain discretionary spending on elective security upgrades or smart-lock installations. However, locksmith services tied to necessity, such as lockouts, rekeying, repairs, and safety-driven replacements, tend to be less sensitive to consumer sentiment swings. As households and businesses prioritize essential expenditures amid economic uncertainty, demand for core locksmith services should remain relatively stable, even as higher-end or elective projects face modest headwinds.

• Commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, a demand indicator for business-related lock-changing services, rose 1% in 2025 year over year, reaching 7,940 filings, according to Epiq AACER and ABI data. The total commercial filings increased 5% in 2025 year over year, totaling 31,810 commercial filings. Small business filings, captured as Subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, increased 11% in 2025 year over year. ABI Executive Director Amy Quakenboss said in a statement that the convergence of economic stressors continues to weigh on financially distressed consumers and businesses.
• Demand for building design services, a forward-looking demand driver for locksmithing services, remained soft in November 2025, according to a report by the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The AIA’s Architecture Billing Index (ABI), an indicator of future drywall and insulation demand, was 45.3 in November, down from October’s reading of 47.2. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction in architectural billings. In November, new project inquiries grew modestly while the value of newly signed design contracts softened. By major sector, billings index growth in November was mostly in contraction territory, including commercial/industrial (45.2), institutional (47.6), and residential (46.6).