Locksmiths NAICS 561622

May 23, 2025 - Faster Growth Forecast

• Sales for the US locksmiths industry are projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.84% between 2025 and 2029, faster than the overall economy’s growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the management and administrative services sector, which includes locksmith services. Progress post-pandemic in general has come slowly, but services industries are expected to recover more substantially. Factors that may limit consumer spending are higher tariffs on consumer goods. In 2025 and into the forecast period, real disposable income may be supported by continuing nominal wage growth, lower inflation rates, and higher employment levels. Lower inflation provides support for a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
• Consumer confidence levels, an indicator of discretionary spending, fell in April 2025 month over month, dropping by 7.9 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. In addition, the final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”

• Commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, a demand indicator for business-related lock-changing services, dropped 20% in April 2025 year over year, according to Epiq AACER. The total number of commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies filed in April 2025 was 434, compared to 542 filings a year ago. The total commercial filings declined 12% in April year over year, to 2,265 commercial filings. Small business filings, captured as Subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, increased 4% in April year over year. According to Epiq AACER VP Michael Hunter, “While commercial filings have softened, the uptick in small business Subchapter V elections signals persistent distress among smaller businesses navigating an uncertain economic landscape.”
• According to the Jobber Home Service Economic Report released in February 2025, volatile consumer demand, a recovering housing market, and accelerating digital payment adoption are trends for home service businesses such as cleaners, landscapers, locksmiths, and HVAC technicians. The report noted that 2024 was marked by increased volatility across all Home Service segments. Median revenue growth for service providers showed some upward movement during Q3 and Q4, compared to a year ago, attributed to higher prices. “While revenue dipped at times, the latter half of the year showed improvement,” noted the report. The outlook for the home services sector in 2025 is promising as inflation stabilizes, consumer demand grows, and the job market remains strong, according to the Jobber report. Consumers continue to increase their adoption of digital payments. The report noted that digital payments were about 47% of total payments in Q4 2024 with the expectation to reach 50% in 2025.