Long Distance General Freight Trucking NAICS 484121, 484122

Sep 22, 2025 - Shift To Intermodal Transport Shows Decline in Long Distance Trucking Demand

• FreightWaves’ latest data shows the national average length of haul hit an all-time low of 522 miles in August 2025, with long distance-trucking under pressure as shippers shift freight to intermodal transport. The long-haul segment (loads over 800 miles) has dipped the most, followed by the 450 to 800 mile segment. Only short-haul loads under 100 miles grew year-over-year, largely from warehousing and retail distribution. Overall truckload length of haul was about 8% higher year-over-year per FreightWaves, but industry experts think the gain may be seasonal. Rail’s cost advantage continues to erode long-haul demand, especially with shippers bringing in inventory early to avoid tariff risks. Because a single 800-mile move ties up two days of truck capacity versus a fraction of a day for local runs, even temporary rebounds could sharply impact spot rates.
• Freight transportation forecaster FTR Transportation Intelligence downgraded its prediction for production levels of North American Class 8 trucks as the uncertainties in the market from US tariffs hamper new order demand. FTR’s adjusted prediction calls for shipments of about 240,000 Class 8 trucks in 2025, down from the previously estimated 288,000. Excess truck inventory and weak freight demand from tariffs have put the trucking industry in a bind and pushes a planned rebound of the industry into 2026 and maybe even 2027, per FTR experts. Equipment makers are pulling back on production to compensate, with Paccar - maker of Peterbilt and Kenmore trucks - scaling back its 2025 sales forecast, while engine maker Cummins delayed the launch of its latest heavy duty diesel engine from this year until the end of 2026. Trucking companies also worry about potential future tariffs on Class 8 trucks and parts themselves.

• The freight trucking industry increased both volume of shipped goods and spending in Q2 2025 for the first time in three years, a welcome bright spot for an industry having a tough year of tariff woes and overall economic unease. The US Bank National Shipments Index rose 2.4% from Q1, while the National Spend Index grew 1.2%. All five regional trends also improved shipment volume over Q1, with the Southwest leading the way at 6.7%. While positive in the short term, the year-over-year results still show a shrinking industry - shipments down 9.8% and spending dropping 4.9% compared to Q2 2024. Amid an economic environment of uneven manufacturing activity, marginal consumer spending growth, and an up and down housing market, industry experts caution that the positive financial results could be from lower trucking capacity rather than higher demand from customers.
• Autonomous trucks being tested in select markets in the US are now driving at night, extending beyond daytime, and primarily hauling food and other products that need refrigeration. Startup Aurora Innovation operates driverless trucks in Texas on a Houston-Dallas route, and has upgraded its technology to allow the trucks to “see” better at night, a significant challenge for the nascent rigs. About a dozen states allow autonomous trucks on the road, but there are no consistent federal regulations on their use, leaving rulemaking up to a patchwork of state oversight. Autonomous trucks hauling goods at night have the potential to shake up the entire long-haul transportation industry. Companies will be able to leave exhausting, long-haul runs to the driverless trucks, allowing younger drivers and newly licensed drivers to focus more on local deliveries, improving work-life balance for drivers and squelching burnout.