Motorcycle Dealers NAICS 441227

Dec 28, 2025 - Growth Slowdown Projected

• The US motorcycle dealers industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.55% between 2025 and 2029, slower than the overall economy’s projected growth, according to an updated forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. Per the forecast, retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services but it was noted that consumers have maintained strong spending on goods even as costs on some services have risen. High interest rates reduce demand by raising the costs of debt-financed spending. While interest rates have begun to decline, tariffs threaten to renew inflationary pressures and delay further rate cuts. Real disposable income is projected to increase 1.8% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, limited by a slow rise of employment and higher consumption prices.
• Consumer sentiment in December 2025 showed a cautious economic outlook that affects the US motorcycle dealers industry. The University of Michigan Index rose 3.7% month over month to 52.9 but remained 30% below December 2024, and 63% of consumers still expect unemployment to increase. Inflation expectations eased to 4.2% for the next year and 3.2% long term, yet overall confidence stayed subdued. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1, with current condition assessments weakening and expectations holding near recession linked levels. As consumers shift spending toward essential, lower cost categories, motorcycle dealers face softer demand for discretionary purchases, slower sales of premium models, and heightened price sensitivity. Value oriented bikes, used inventory, and flexible financing are likely to hold steadier as buyers prioritize affordability.

• Polaris is selling its majority stake in Indian Motorcycle to private equity firm Carolwood LP, making Indian an independent company in 2026. While Polaris retains a minority interest, the move allows Indian to chart its own strategic path under new CEO Mike Kennedy, a former Harley-Davidson executive. For US motorcycle dealers, Indian's operations are expected to remain stable, with the majority of staff, facilities, and support networks unchanged following the transition. Dealers may see shifts in branding and product strategy, but no expected immediate disruption to sales or service. Polaris acquired the Indian Motorcycle brand in 2011.
• According to a Jalopnik report, an expansion of the Trump administration’s steel and aluminum tariffs to cover more than 400 additional product categories may cause the prices of imported motorcycles to skyrocket. The newly added product codes include selected motorcycles, mopeds, and motorcycle parts. The products face a 50% tariff on their metal content, as of August 18, 2025. One challenge of the expanded tariff is determining what percentage of an item is made with the targeted materials, which increases the compliance burden. One German e-bike maker, Riese & Muller, paused all e-bike shipments to the US in August, citing unpredictable tariffs. The Trump administration has said the tariffs support the revitalization of the American steel and aluminum industries.