Moving Companies NAICS 484210

Jul 23, 2025 - Housing Starts Decline

• Single-family housing starts decreased 4.6% in June 2025 from May, marking the weakest starts activity since June 2024, according to the US Census Bureau. Permitting activity for single-family housing – an indicator of future homebuilding activity – rose 0.2% in June compared to the month before. High interest rates, economic uncertainty, and an oversupply of unsold new homes are weighing on the US homebuilding market, according to Reuters. The inventory of new homes waiting to be sold is the highest since 2007. Some economists suggest that lower interest rates would be a lifeline for the sluggish housing market, but the Federal Reserve is concerned that lowering rates could exacerbate the inflationary effects of the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Housing starts and building permitting activity are indicators of demand for future moving services.
• Sales of existing US homes decreased by 2.7% in June from May and were flat year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, "High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows. If the average mortgage rates were to decline to 6%, our scenario analysis suggests an additional 160,000 renters becoming first-time homeowners and elevated sales activity from existing homeowners." Dr. Yun continued, "Expanding participation in the housing market will increase the mobility of the workforce and drive economic growth. If mortgage rates decrease in the second half of this year, expect home sales to increase across the country due to strong income growth, healthy inventory, and a record-high number of jobs."

• High home prices and mortgage rates have priced many would-be homebuyers out of the market, creating robust pent-up demand that’s unlikely to be realized in the near term, according to The Wall Street Journal. In 2024, there were about 1.1 million first-time buyers, compared to an annual average of about 2.1 million over the last 20 years, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). To afford a median-priced new home today, a buyer would need an income of $127,000 compared to $79,000 for the same home in 2021, according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Industry watchers suggest that many first-time buyers may remain stuck on the sidelines, absent a significant drop in mortgage rates or a recession that pushes down home values.
• Apartment construction is increasingly shifting away from dense urban centers toward less populated and more affordable regions, according to the NAHB’s Q1 2025 Home Building Geography Index and reporting by Smart Cities Dive. Since 2016, large metro core counties have seen a 9.6 percentage-point drop in market share for apartment starts, hitting a low of 35.5%. The trend is fueled by affordability concerns, demographic shifts—especially the rise of older renters seeking suburban lifestyles—and project owners favoring lower-cost developments in exurbs and rural areas. Developers are pursuing projects farther out where land is cheaper and expansion is easier, though total activity in these areas remains relatively small.