Moving Companies NAICS 484210

Jan 22, 2026 - Lock-in Effect Keeps People from Moving

• Millions of homeowners remain locked into mortgage rates at or below 4%, a dynamic that continues to freeze the housing market even as current rates fall, according to The Wall Street Journal. The lock in effect has kept inventory depressed for three years, since many owners refuse to give up ultralow loans secured during 2020 and 2021. Near record home prices, rising insurance costs, and higher property taxes are adding to affordability pressures, and economists do not expect mortgage rates to fall enough to motivate most owners to move. While lower rates and softening prices have boosted activity in parts of the South and West, overall existing home sales remain near 30-year lows. Analysts say it may take years for incomes to catch up, leaving only those who must relocate willing to sell while discretionary movers continue to stay put.
• New single-family home sales fell 0.1% month-over-month but were up 18.7% year-over-year in October 2025, according to the US Census Bureau. The October new home sales data was delayed due to the 43-day government shutdown. October's total new home sales reached 737,000 units, following two previous months of gains. Some industry watchers suggest that while mortgage rates gradually inched lower throughout 2025, they are likely to remain elevated, Reuters reports. Mortgage rates closely track the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which is under upward pressure from the federal deficit and above-target inflation. There are emerging signals that labor-market concerns are weighing on new-home purchase demand.

• Sales of existing US homes increased by 5.1% in December from November and were up 1.4% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, "2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales. However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after seasonal adjustments, were the strongest in nearly 3 years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month." Existing home sales are a key demand driver for moving services.
• The National Association of Realtors' 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers reveals a record-low 21% share of first-time buyers and a median age of 40, signaling long-term shifts that could lead to a reduction in residential moving frequency. With affordability challenges delaying homeownership, buyers are likely to move less frequently, which in turn impacts demand for moving services. Sellers are staying in homes longer, with a median tenure of 11 years, and moving shorter distances, now just 30 miles on average. Multigenerational living remains common, although it has decreased slightly, further reducing household turnover. These trends indicate a slower-moving housing market, characterized by fewer relocations and more localized moves, which are reshaping the residential moving industry’s customer base and service models.