Musical Instrument & Supply Stores NAICS 459140

May 23, 2025 - Cooler Growth Expected

• The US musical instrument and supplies stores industry is projected to grow at a 0.62% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, slower than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. Retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. In 2025 and into the forecast period, real disposable income may be supported by continuing nominal wage growth, lower inflation rates, and higher employment levels. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a new report in Retail Dive, the retail sector had 64,319 job cuts in the first four months of 2025, a nearly 300% increase year over year, and the second-leading industry in job cuts. The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report found retail job cuts were up almost 80% year over year in April 2025, reaching 7,235. According to Andrew Challenger, an SVP at the consulting firm, “Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending.” The US lost 603,000 jobs in total across all industries, the most since 2020, when over one million job cuts occurred. According to the report, nearly half of the cuts in the first four months were attributed to job eliminations by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

• Musical instrument retailers are preparing for higher instrument prices and other adverse impacts from new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to a statement from the National Association of Music Merchants (NAMM) in Synthtopia. NAMM CEO John Mlynczak said that the new tariffs will increase the prices of musical instruments, which are often imported or made with imported parts. The NAMM has called for “universal exemptions from punitive tariffs for all musical products and accessories that are used by musicians worldwide.” New US tariffs have targeted imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, among others. In particular, tariffs on entry-level musical instruments imported from China would disproportionally affect young musicians, students, and school music programs. According to the National Retail Federation, “Like many other industries, musical product trade is also highly interconnected in North America, with decades of successful trade and partnerships between Mexico and Canada that have allowed us to compete globally.”
• Consumer confidence levels, an indicator of discretionary spending, fell in April 2025 month over month, dropping by 7.9 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. In addition, the final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”