Nail Salons NAICS 812113

May 30, 2026 - New Regulations Pressure Beauty Education

• According to an American Salon report, proposed Department of Education regulations could put up to 92% of US cosmetology programs at risk of closure, creating a major workforce threat for the US nail care services industry. Industry groups warn the new earnings-based accountability rule could eliminate federal financial aid access for roughly 1,400 cosmetology programs, disrupting the pipeline of licensed salon and nail care professionals. Because 70% to 90% of cosmetology students rely on federal aid, widespread school closures could intensify existing labor shortages, raise hiring costs for nail salons, and reduce industry growth potential. Advocates also argue the rule fails to accurately reflect beauty industry career paths, where professionals often take years to build clientele and income. For nail care businesses, the proposal could limit access to new talent while increasing operational and staffing pressures across salons, spas, and independent beauty service providers.
• Weakening consumer confidence and rising inflation concerns could dampen demand for discretionary nail salon services as customers become more price conscious and selective with personal care spending, according to recently released index data. In May 2026, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 44.8 (down 10.0% month-over-month and 14.2% year-over-year), with the Current Economic Conditions Index declining to 45.8 and the Consumer Expectations Index falling to 44.1. Meanwhile, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index edged down to 93.1 from 93.8 in April, as consumers cited higher prices and economic uncertainty. Two-thirds of consumers reported cutting back spending due to rising costs. For nail salons, this environment may lead clients to choose basic services over premium treatments, extend the time between appointments, and become more sensitive to price increases, while rising operating costs continue to pressure profitability.

• Shifting beauty preferences among Gen Z and Gen Alpha are reshaping demand for nail salons, as younger consumers prioritize “slow beauty” rituals over fast, trend-driven services, according to a Beauty Matter report. Despite strong spending power—Gen Z teens spend $374 annually on beauty and drive 35% of beauty website traffic—these consumers are more intentional and less brand loyal (20% less likely to repurchase the same brand). For nail salons, this signals opportunity and risk. Demand may shift toward experiential, routine-based services that emphasize wellness and in-person engagement, as more than half of Gen Z prefer shopping in-store. However, success will depend on delivering differentiated, ritual-driven experiences, as younger consumers increasingly research, compare, and seek meaningful, non-transactional service interactions.
• Nail salons benefited from strong, service-led demand growth in 2025, according to GlossGenius data in American Salon covering roughly 100,000 US beauty and wellness professionals. Nails ranked among the fastest-growing service categories, led by a major shift in client preferences toward waterless treatments. Bookings for dry manicures surged 150% year over year, as clients increasingly requested lotions, oils, and heat treatments instead of traditional soaking. Higher-value and specialized offerings also gained traction, with cat-eye nails up 81%, hard gel services rising nearly 70%, gel manicures increasing 66%, and advanced nail art (Level 3) growing 64%. The data suggests consumers are prioritizing technique, customization, and perceived nail health rather than basic maintenance. For US nail salons, these trends point to opportunities to drive revenue through premium services, skill-based differentiation, and updated service menus aligned with evolving client expectations.