Nail Salons NAICS 812113

May 30, 2025 - Faster Growth Forecast

• The US nail salons industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.94% between 2025 and 2029, faster than the growth of the overall economy, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. Nail salons are part of the “other services” sector, which is driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. Factors that may limit consumer spending are higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• Consumer confidence levels, an indicator of discretionary spending, fell in April 2025 month over month, dropping by 7.9 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. In addition, the final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”

• According to a report in Salon Today, nail salons were one of the beauty care categories expanding in 2024. Leading the expansion in 2024 was medspas (increasing locations by 15%), followed by waxing centers (8%) and nail salons (7%). The 2025 Beauty and Wellness Benchmark Report by Zenoti analyzed performance data from its database of 30,000 businesses, including salons, nail salons, barbershops, waxing centers, and spas. Online booking correlates with higher revenue and shows customers embracing integrated tech systems, according to the Zenoti report. Nearly 8 out of 10 appointments at leading nail salons were booked online. The beauty and wellness industry showed a 2% increase in growth in 2024 compared to 5% in 2023, and nail salons that focused on adding locations in 2024 saw a 7% increase in revenue. Customer loyalty also stood out as a vital income generator, with 42% of loyal clients driving 80% of revenue.
• Nail salons, included in the “Other Services” category, is one of the eight industries reporting employment growth in April’s Services ISM Report on Business. Executives in the industry also reported slower deliveries, a decrease in inventories, a decrease in order backlogs, and higher prices paid for materials and services. Industries reporting growth during the period included Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Art, Entertainment, and Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Educational Services; and Utilities. The six services industries reporting contraction during the period were Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; and Construction. Overall, economic activity in the services sector expanded in April, with the Services PMI registering 51.6%.