New Housing For-Sale Builders NAICS 236117

Sep 23, 2025 - Weak Housing Demand, Supply Glut Sends Lumber Prices Lower

• Falling lumber prices could be a bright spot for builder margins amid soft housing market conditions. Lumber futures have plunged since early August, signaling economic caution amid trade uncertainty and a weakening housing market, according to The Wall Street Journal. Spot prices saw a similar drop over the same period. A glut of wood - stockpiled in anticipation of higher tariffs on Canadian imports - has collided with softening demand, prompting major producers like Interfor and Domtar to curtail output. While high lumber prices during the pandemic stemmed from inflation and supply chain strain, current declines result from reduced construction activity and tariff volatility. Analysts warn that further production cuts are likely as the market adjusts to oversupply and shifting trade dynamics. Distributors holding higher-cost inventory could see margins suffer if they cut prices to match competitors who bought more recently on the spot market.
• Mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 1% in August 2025 compared to the same month a year earlier, but were down 6% from July 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The MBA’s seasonally adjusted estimate for new home sales in August was up 6% from July’s pace of 685,000 units. August marked the third consecutive rise in estimated new home sales. According to MBA Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan, housing inventory is rising, giving potential buyers more options while reducing upward pressure on housing prices.

• Nearly a third of US construction firms have been impacted by intensified immigration enforcement in the last six months, according to a recent report by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) and the National Center for Construction Education and Research (NCCER). More stringent enforcement has slowed project delivery and left 88% of firms with craft worker vacancies. One-fifth of construction firms surveyed reported that subcontractors had lost workers, 10% reported increases in absenteeism due to actual or rumored enforcement actions, and 5% said jobsites had been visited by immigration agents. Only 10% of firms use visa programs like H-2B due to approval challenges, leaving many vulnerable to enforcement actions. Industry leaders are urging Congress to increase career and technical education funding and create a construction-specific visa program to stabilize the workforce and support long-term growth.
• The average 30-year mortgage rate was the lowest in nearly a year in the second week of September, increasing buying power for would-be homeowners, but headwinds for a housing recovery remain, according to The Wall Street Journal. The week of September 18, the weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.26%, down significantly from 7% at the start of 2025, and marking the lowest rate since October 2024, according to Freddie Mac. Industry insiders suggest the frozen housing market may begin to thaw when rates are consistently below 6%, a financial and psychological signpost for many. However, affordability remains a challenge as home prices are about 50% higher than in 2019. Insurance and property tax costs are also elevated. Signs of a slower labor market may also give some potential buyers pause.