Nurseries, Garden Centers & Farm Supply NAICS 444240

Nov 21, 2025 - Garden Supply Sales Slip in October

• According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, building and garden supply stores lagged behind broader retail gains in October 2025, missing the seasonal sales bounce. Core retail sales rose 0.6% month over month and 4.8% year over year, reflecting solid consumer spending supported by wage growth and low unemployment. However, building and garden supply stores fell 0.8% month over month (seasonally adjusted) and 8.5% (unadjusted) year over year, making them one of only two categories to contract. Furniture and home furnishings store sales also fell, posting a 0.08% monthly decline and a 1.7% annual drop. In contrast, categories such as clothing (7.8% year over year), electronics (6.5% year over year), and digital products (22.3% year over year) saw strong growth. For the first ten months of 2025, core retail sales were up 5.2%, and the NRF projects holiday sales to rise 3.7% to 4.2% to just over $1 trillion. The data, based on Affinity Solutions’ anonymized card transactions, highlights competitive pressures facing retailers.
• Softening consumer sentiment and confidence in November and October 2025 reflects a growing weakness in discretionary spending, posing challenges for US garden centers and farm supply stores. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 6.2% month-over-month in November's preliminary results to 50.3, a 29.9% year-over-year decline. The Current Economic Conditions Index fell to 52.3, and the Expectations Index to 49, down 36.3% annually. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while long-run expectations declined to 3.6%, with increased uncertainty across both horizons. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged down to 94.6 from 95.6 in October, as improved current conditions (Present Situation Index up to 129.3) were offset by weaker short-term expectations (Expectations Index down to 71.5). Inflation expectations rose to 5.9%, and over half of consumers anticipated higher interest rates. Holiday spending is projected to fall, with promotions driving purchasing decisions.

• According to a report in the Capital Press, some nursery operations reported slower sales in 2025 due to tariffs, currency fluctuations, and weather, while others, particularly those selling vegetable starts and flowers, saw record growth as consumers sought affordability and self-sufficiency. Oregon remains a national leader, with its $1.22 billion nursery industry ranking third in the US and supplying diverse climates nationwide. Key challenges include labor costs, immigration policy impacts, tariff unpredictability, and rising operational expenses, which may force consolidation among smaller nurseries. At the same time, opportunities arise from homeowners’ continued investment in landscapes, demand for drought-resistant plants, and ecological benefits tied to trees and gardening. Nurseries and garden centers may need to balance cautious growth strategies with adaptability to shifting consumer preferences, global trade dynamics, and regulatory costs while leveraging strong demand for ornamentals, annuals, and sustainable plant varieties.
• The Retail Trade Industry is one of 11 industries reporting growth in October's Services ISM Report on Business. Executives in the Retail Trade industry reported increases in business activity, new orders, employment, prices paid for materials and services, and order backlogs, along with decreases in new export orders, imports, and inventories in October. Additional industries reporting growth during the period were Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services. Six industries reported contraction during the period, including Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Construction; and Other Services. Overall, economic activity in the services sector expanded in October, with the Services PMI registering 52.4.