Nurseries, Garden Centers & Farm Supply NAICS 444240

Jan 21, 2026 - Younger Gardeners to Drive 2026 Demand: Axiom

• The 2026 Axiom Gardening Outlook Study points to a favorable demand environment for US nurseries and garden centers, led by younger consumers, according to a report in Garden Center Magazine. In 2025, 66.7% of millennials and 63.8% of Gen Z spent time gardening, with 34% of all gardeners spending 50% more time year over year and 12% spending 100% more—marking the largest increase since 2022. Spending also rose, as 49.5% of gardeners spent more on gardening in 2025, led by millennials at 61.1%. Looking ahead, 63.6% of gardeners plan to expand their gardens in 2026, while 50.2% expect to spend more time gardening and 42.8% expect to spend more money. Millennials (63.9%) and Gen Z (49.3%) are the strongest growth drivers, signaling opportunities for garden centers to align product assortments and marketing with younger demographics.
• While five services industries reported contraction in December, 11 industries reported growth, including the Retail Trade industry, according to an ISM Services PMI Report. Executives in the Retail Trade industry reported increases in business activity, new orders, employment, prices paid for materials and services, and inventories, along with decreases in new export orders, imports, and order backlogs in December. Other industries reporting growth during the period were Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; and Utilities. Industries reporting contraction during the period include Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; and Construction. Overall economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, registering 54.4%.

• According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, building and garden supply stores lagged behind broader retail gains in December 2025. Core retail sales rose 1.6% month over month and 3.5% year over year, reflecting results in line with the NRF retail forecast. However, building and garden supply stores posted a 1.1% monthly increase (seasonally adjusted) and a 5.3% annual decrease (unadjusted), making them one of only several categories to contract. Furniture and home furnishings stores fell 0.8% year over year, and electronics and appliance stores fell 0.09% year over year. In contrast, categories such as clothing (6.1% year over year), sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores (5.1%), and digital products (3.6% year over year) saw solid growth. The data, based on Affinity Solutions’ anonymized card transactions, highlights competitive pressures facing furniture retailers.
• According to a report in the Capital Press, some nursery operations reported slower sales in 2025 due to tariffs, currency fluctuations, and weather, while others, particularly those selling vegetable starts and flowers, saw record growth as consumers sought affordability and self-sufficiency. Oregon remains a national leader, with its $1.22 billion nursery industry ranking third in the US and supplying diverse climates nationwide. Key challenges include labor costs, immigration policy impacts, tariff unpredictability, and rising operational expenses, which may force consolidation among smaller nurseries. At the same time, opportunities arise from homeowners’ continued investment in landscapes, demand for drought-resistant plants, and ecological benefits tied to trees and gardening. Nurseries and garden centers may need to balance cautious growth strategies with adaptability to shifting consumer preferences, global trade dynamics, and regulatory costs while leveraging strong demand for ornamentals, annuals, and sustainable plant varieties.