Nurseries, Garden Centers & Farm Supply NAICS 444240

Mar 25, 2026 - Garden Center Sales Lag Broader Retail Growth

• According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, US retail sales continued to grow in February, but nurseries and garden centers lagged broader trends. Total retail sales rose 0.28% month over month and 6.24% year over year, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase, supported by wage gains and low unemployment. Core retail sales also increased 0.27% month over month and 5.87% year over year. However, building and garden supply stores declined 0.25% month over month and 5.75% year over year the weakest performance among major categories. This suggests softer demand heading , into the spring season despite overall consumer strength. For nurseries and garden centers, the situation highlights near-term demand pressure and increased competition for value-conscious consumers, even as broader retail momentum and improving household finances could support a seasonal rebound.
• Gardening trends in 2026, such as smart irrigation systems that reduce water use by 30%–50%, are reshaping demand for US nurseries, farm supply stores, and garden centers, according to an AOL report. Consumers are increasingly adopting higher-value, tech-enabled solutions that improve plant health while lowering maintenance costs. At the same time, demand is shifting toward low-maintenance, drought-tolerant plants like native species, earth-kind roses, and geraniums, supporting more resilient and sustainable product mixes. Trends such as plant propagation and community “propagation parties” may slightly reduce repeat plant purchases but boost customer engagement. Meanwhile, the rise of experiential, wellness-focused outdoor spaces is likely to drive incremental sales of premium plants and landscaping materials. Overall, the industry is moving toward higher-margin, sustainability-driven offerings, requiring retailers to align inventory with efficiency, durability, and lifestyle-focused gardening preferences.

• Despite broader services sector expansion, retail trade contracted in February, creating a cautious outlook for retailers, including nurseries and garden stores, according to an ISM Services PMI Report. The Services PMI rose to 56.1% (+2.3 points), with strong gains in business activity (59.9%) and new orders (58.6%), indicating solid underlying demand. However, retail was one of only three industries reporting contraction, alongside declines in employment within the sector. For garden centers, mixed signals persist: while agriculture-related industries reported growth and inventories increased to 56.4% (+11.3 points), suggesting seasonal stock building, elevated prices (63%) and ongoing supply chain pressures, including component shortages and rising transportation costs, may constrain margins. Overall, improving demand trends and inventory buildup support spring selling potential, but retail-specific weakness and cost pressures require cautious planning.
• The 2026 Axiom Gardening Outlook Study points to a favorable demand environment for US nurseries and garden centers, led by younger consumers, according to a report in Garden Center Magazine. In 2025, 66.7% of millennials and 63.8% of Gen Z spent time gardening, with 34% of all gardeners spending 50% more time year over year and 12% spending 100% more—marking the largest increase since 2022. Spending also rose, as 49.5% of gardeners spent more on gardening in 2025, led by millennials at 61.1%. Looking ahead, 63.6% of gardeners plan to expand their gardens in 2026, while 50.2% expect to spend more time gardening and 42.8% expect to spend more money. Millennials (63.9%) and Gen Z (49.3%) are the strongest growth drivers, signaling opportunities for garden centers to align product assortments and marketing with younger demographics.