Nurseries, Garden Centers & Farm Supply NAICS 444240

Jul 29, 2025 - Garden Purchases Weaker in Spring 2025: Report

• Garden center sales were nearly 4% lower in spring 2025 compared to a year ago, but remained ahead of the same period in 2020, according to a Garden Media Group report titled “Garden Pulse: Spring 2025 Analysis” in Garden Center. While the industry faced a challenging environment, including poor early spring weather and tariff-related economic anxiety, consumers continued to view gardening as an essential activity. Garden Media Group President Katie Dubow noted, “Gardening has always been recession-resistant. In 2008, 2020, and now again in 2025, we’re seeing a familiar pattern. When people face financial or emotional uncertainty, they return to their roots — literally.” Frontline sales at independent garden centers were about the same in spring 2025 as they were a year ago and were up 27% from 2020, with high demand for edibles and ornamentals. Early Q2 sales figures appear to be trending even higher, according to data.
• Consumer confidence levels, an indicator of discretionary spending, increased in July 2025 month over month, rising by 2 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence levels have stabilized since May but remain lower than last year’s levels, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. July’s gain can be attributed to consumers over 35 years old and shared across all income groups, except the lowest income group earning below $15K. In addition, the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan increased in July 2025, rising to 61.8 in preliminary July data from 60.7 in June, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. July’s inflation expectation results were lower than June’s, when respondents expected a 5% price increase for the coming year. The index serves as a predictor of consumer spending as it indicates consumers’ perception of their financial prospects and the broader economy.

• Sales for the US nurseries, garden centers, and farm supply retailers industry are projected to grow at a 4.02% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, comparable to the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and the government. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a report in Garden Center Magazine, spending on perennial plants appears robust for 2025, with quality and color the most important factors for consumers. The 2025 Perennial Survey found that 64% of respondents purchase perennials multiple times per year, indicating a trend of repeat visits to garden retailers. About 80% of respondents reported purchasing perennials from an independent garden center in 2024, and 74% said they rely on their local nursery or garden center for information on perennials. Over 70% of respondents stated they spent more or the same amount in 2024 compared to previous years. Spring was peak season for perennial purchases, with 89% of respondents reporting purchases in April, May, and June. The top three favorite perennials, according to respondents, were echinacea, salvia, and hosta. More than 14,000 gardeners in the US and Canada responded to the survey.