Nurseries, Garden Centers & Farm Supply NAICS 444240

May 27, 2025 - Average Growth Expected

• Sales for the US nurseries, garden centers, and farm supply retailers industry are projected to grow at a 4.02% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, comparable to the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and the government. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a report in Garden Center Magazine, spending on perennial plants appears robust for 2025, with quality and color the most important factors for consumers. The 2025 Perennial Survey found that 64% of respondents purchase perennials multiple times per year, indicating a trend of repeat visits to garden retailers. About 80% of respondents reported purchasing perennials from an independent garden center in 2024, and 74% said they rely on their local nursery or garden center for information on perennials. Over 70% of respondents stated they spent more or the same amount in 2024 compared to previous years. Spring was peak season for perennial purchases, with 89% of respondents reporting purchases in April, May, and June. The top three favorite perennials, according to respondents, were echinacea, salvia, and hosta. More than 14,000 gardeners in the US and Canada responded to the survey.

• Gardeners shop more frequently at big box stores for their gardening supplies but choose independent garden centers for their highest quality plants, according to the 2025 Axiom Gardening Outlook Study in Garden Center Magazine. The survey revealed that respondents shopped most frequently for their garden supplies at Home Depot (32%), Lowe’s (19%), Walmart (17%), and independent garden centers (12%), followed by grocery stores, online sales, farm stores, and hardware stores. Respondents said they shopped for plants at Home Depot (34%), Lowe’s (16%), and independent garden centers (15%). Independent garden centers were tops regarding where shoppers go for plant quality and knowledgeable associates. Shoppers said they chose garden centers for more plant choices, new plant choices, and help selecting the right plants for the garden.
• An indicator of discretionary spending, consumer confidence levels fell in April 2025 month over month, dropping by 7.9 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. In addition, the final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”