Office Supplies and Stationery Stores NAICS 459410

Aug 6, 2025 - Inflation Top of Mind for Back-to-School Shoppers

• US consumers are expected to spend $33.3 billion on back-to-school items in 2025, up 3.3% over 2024, according to Coresight Research and reporting by Retail Dive. However, over two-thirds of those surveyed (68.8%) said inflation will limit their back-to-school spending. Nearly three-quarters of consumers surveyed said they expect supply chain disruptions and tariffs to push prices higher, and almost 65% expect the same issues to create product shortages. Per-child spending on back-to-school is expected to rise 21.5% to $378 in 2025 compared to 2024. To cope with higher prices, 41% of those surveyed said they will seek bulk discounts and promotions. Other bargain-hunting strategies include shopping earlier (37.4%) and switching to private-label or more affordable brands (30%).
• Total US printing-writing (P-W) paper shipments dropped 6% in June compared to the same month in 2024, according to the American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA). Sales of coated free-sheet papers increased 3% in June compared to a year earlier. Uncoated free sheet papers saw sales fall 1% in the first half of 2025 from H1 2024. Mechanical papers shipments rose 2% over the same period. While total P-W paper shipments dropped in June, inventory increased from May, marking the second month of climbing inventories.

• Office supply retail firm ODP Corporation (Office Depot and OfficeMax) recently reported second-quarter 2024 sales of $1.6 billion, down 8% compared to Q2 2024. The firm said the drop in sales was primarily due to its Office Depot consumer business, which had 60 fewer locations than during the same reporting period in 2024. The Office Depot division also experienced weaker retail and online consumer traffic. Sales in the company’s ODP Business Solutions division were down 6% compared to Q2 2024. ODP posted net income of $9 million in Q2 2025, down from a gain of $41 million in Q2 2024.
• Despite the digitalization of everyday life, small stationery stores are thriving by offering unique tactile experiences, according to Retail Dive. While larger brands – including Papyrus and Paper Source – have struggled, local shops have built loyal followings by offering hyper-personalization, workshops, limited-edition collaborations, community engagement, and locally sourced products. Papyrus closed all its US-based stores during the pandemic but still sells online and through retail partners. Paper Source was bought out of bankruptcy by Barnes & Noble in 2021. Wellness practices that include limited time with screens – such as journaling - have helped drive sales of stationery items. However, many of the higher-quality stationery products are not available from US suppliers and recent increases in tariffs could force stores to raise prices.