Paint and Varnish Wholesalers NAICS 424950

May 27, 2026 - Remodeling Spending to Slow Early Next Year

• Home remodeling spending growth is expected to slow significantly early in 2027, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) report released in May by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. Homeowner spending on improvements and repairs is expected to increase 1.8% to $516 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared to Q2 2025. In the third quarter of 2026, remodeling spending will trend slightly upward to $518 billion, up 2.4% from Q3 2025. Spending will then remain flat at $518 billion in Q4 2026, up 1.8% from Q4 2025. In the first quarter of 2027, year-over-year spending is forecast to rise just 0.5% to $523 billion. Remodeling permitting and building product sales have remained flat recently, but homeowners are expected to maintain spending near 2025 levels. Remodeling spending is likely to remain subdued, barring a turnaround in the construction sector.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that in May, AkzoNobel rejected a roughly 12.49 billion euro takeover bid from Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams, choosing instead to pursue its planned merger with Axalta Coating Systems. The decision underscores ongoing consolidation pressures in the global paint and coatings industry, where companies are seeking scale, portfolio breadth, and geographic reach to compete across decorative, industrial, and specialty segments. Akzo said the offer, which included a proposed breakup of its business, undervalued its long-term prospects and was subject to regulatory uncertainty. The bid represented a 39% premium to Akzo’s prior closing price. Akzo’s boards reaffirmed support for the all-stock Axalta deal, while Nippon Paint and Sherwin-Williams did not comment.

• CNBC reports Home Depot beat Wall Street expectations and reaffirmed full-year guidance as homeowner customers remained resilient despite higher gas prices and weak consumer confidence. Fiscal first-quarter revenue rose about 5% year over year to $41.8 billion, while net income fell to $3.29 billion, down 4% year over year. Executives said customers continue to spend on smaller projects but are deferring larger renovations. Home center retailers continue to face headwinds related to a soft housing market, including high mortgage rates, lower housing turnover, and economic uncertainty. The company is investing in its professional customer segment through acquisitions to capture more market share in a large, fragmented market, while maintaining modest sales growth expectations this year. Home centers are a key sales channel for paint and varnish wholesalers.
• Single-family housing starts dropped by 9% month-over-month and decreased 2.4% year-over-year in April, according to the US Census Bureau. The number of building permits issued for single-family, privately-owned housing units fell 2.6% month-over-month and dropped 5.5% year-over-year in April 2026. Homebuilders have faced several headwinds, including tariffs that have increased the cost of key inputs like lumber and cabinets, and labor shortages, according to Reuters. Higher mortgage rates may also be weighing on demand for new single-family homes. The US war with Iran is pushing oil prices higher, along with US Treasury yields. Mortgage rates have moved higher as they are tied to the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield. As of May 21, 2026, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.51% compared to 5.98% when the war began. Residential construction activity is a significant demand driver for architectural paints and varnishes.