Paint and Varnish Wholesalers NAICS 424950

Jan 26, 2026 - Nonresidential Building Spending to Remain Sluggish Through 2027

• Weak nonresidential building construction activity may soften demand for architectural paints. Construction spending for nonresidential buildings is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 and 2027, according to the latest American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast. Spending on nonresidential building construction is expected to rise 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Through 2027, commercial facility growth will be led by data centers, with spending increasing 26.3% in 2026 and 16.5% in 2027. However, offices are expected to see a sharp decline in spending over the forecast period, while warehouse and retail will see weak growth this year and modest gains in 2027. Manufacturing construction spending will fall 3.9% in 2026 and drop 2.8% next year. Spending on institutional projects will grow 2.7% this year and 2.8% in 2027, led by steady growth in the health sector, but educational, and amusement and recreation project spending will be flat.
• Sales of existing US homes increased by 5.1% in December from November and were up 1.4% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, "2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales. However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after adjusting for seasonal factors, were the strongest in nearly three years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month." Existing home sales are a key demand driver for paints and varnishes, as sellers typically refresh paint before putting homes on the market, and buyers often make renovations before moving in.

• Demand for automotive paints and coatings may soften amid an anticipated drop in global light vehicle production in 2026. Three key issues are expected to shape the global auto industry in the coming year: uncertainty stemming from shifting US trade and tariff policies, China's ascending auto sector at home and abroad, and demand shifts in the EV market, especially in North America and Europe, according to S&P Mobility. North American light vehicle production is forecast to contract by 0.8% in 2026 as the industry grapples with margin pressures driven by demand for lower-priced models. Asian brands are expected to continue emphasizing exports to North America despite tariffs.
• The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) reading for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 64, up four points from the previous quarter, according to a January 2026 report by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Any RMI reading over 50 indicates that most remodelers feel market conditions are good. In the fourth quarter, the Current Conditions Index portion of the RMI rose three points to 71 compared to Q3 2025. The Future Indicators Index component of the RMI increased by four points to 56. While aging US housing stock, strong homeowner equity, and the aging-in-place trend kept the RMI solidly in positive territory in Q4 2025, the NAHB noted that high building costs and waning consumer confidence continue to pose challenges to the remodeling industry.