Paint, Coating & Adhesive Manufacturers NAICS 3255

Jul 29, 2025 - Housing Starts Decline

• Single-family housing starts decreased 4.6% in June 2025 from May, marking the weakest starts activity since June 2024, according to the US Census Bureau. Permitting activity for single-family housing – an indicator of future homebuilding activity – rose 0.2% in June compared to the month before. High interest rates, economic uncertainty, and an oversupply of unsold new homes are weighing on the US homebuilding market, according to Reuters. The inventory of new homes waiting to be sold is the highest since 2007. Some economists suggest that lower interest rates would be a lifeline for the sluggish housing market, but the Federal Reserve is concerned that lowering rates could exacerbate the inflationary effects of the Trump administration’s tariff policies.
• North American construction and engineering spending in 2025 is expected to grow by 1% after increasing an estimated 7% in 2024, according to FMI’s third-quarter 2025 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook. Nonresidential building construction spending is forecast to rise 1% in 2025 as growth in amusement and recreation (+6%), transportation (+4%), educational (+4%), and public safety (+2%), is offset by weakness in commercial (-4%), lodging (-3%), and manufacturing (0%). Amid high mortgage interest rates and a lack of affordability, single-family construction spending is forecast to rise by 1% in 2025. A recent jump in new apartment supply and unfavorable cost conditions will reduce multifamily spending by 9% in 2025.

• Home remodeling spending growth is expected to remain flat in 2025 and the first half of 2026, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) report by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. Homeowner improvements and repairs are expected to increase 2% to $509 billion in the third quarter of 2025 compared to Q3 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, remodeling spending will rise quarter-over-quarter to $511 billion, up 1.8% from Q4 2024. Spending will increase to $524 billion in Q1 2026, up 2.2% from Q1 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year spending is forecast to rise 1.2% to $518 billion. Joint Center expects a weak housing market to put downward pressure on remodeling spending. However, recent federal cuts to incentives for efficiency improvements may spur short-term growth as homeowners make upgrades before benefits expire at the end of the year.
• Home builder confidence in the single-family market rose slightly in July but remained in negative territory for the 15th consecutive month, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Home builder sentiment, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), increased one point to 33 in June 2025. Any HMI reading over 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as good than poor. The US housing market faces headwinds from high interest rates and economic uncertainty. The HMI survey also showed that 37% of builders have reduced home prices to lure potential buyers off the sidelines, although the average price reduction of 5% has remained unchanged since November 2024.