Painting & Wall Covering Contractors NAICS 238320

Mar 17, 2025 - Immigration Crackdown May Increase Absenteeism

• Raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) are prompting some foreign-born workers to stay home from their workplaces, disrupting key industries that rely on migrant workforces, including construction, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Trump administration has said that while it is focusing on undocumented people with criminal backgrounds, anyone in the country illegally faces increased risk. According to an analysis of US Census Bureau data by the American Immigration Council, undocumented immigrants make up about 14% of the US construction sector’s workforce. The Associated General Contractors of America said it had received anecdotal reports of rising absenteeism from member firms in several locations, including Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Texas. Labor disruptions reduce construction firms’ ability to deliver projects on time.
• The value of total US construction spending decreased by 0.2% in January 2025 compared to December, according to the US Census Bureau. Residential spending fell by 0.5%, while nonresidential spending grew by 0.1%. Within the nonresidential building construction subsector, growth in January was led by a 0.7% rise in spending for lodging projects, followed by healthcare (+0.6) and office (+0.4%). Drops in commercial, educational, and multifamily housing spending dragged overall building construction spending in January. High interest rates continue to weigh on US construction activity, and import tariffs could present additional headwinds, according to Reuters.

• A lack of affordability in the new, single-family home market could reduce demand for residential painting and wall covering contractors. In 2025, nearly 75% of US households are unable to afford a median-priced new home, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Given a median new home price of $459,826 and a 30-year mortgage rate of 6.5%, more than 100 million US households are priced out of the market. In 23 US states and Washington DC, more than 80% of households cannot afford a median-priced new home, suggesting a significant discrepancy between home prices and household incomes.
• North American residential improvement spending is forecast to rise 5% in 2025, according to FMI’s first-quarter 2025 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook. Residential remodeling spending in 2024 was driven by multifamily, single-family rentals, extreme weather events, and smaller contractors expanding to offer luxury improvements. FMI expects these trends to continue in 2025. Demand is also driven by record-high home values, aging housing stock, and homeowners opting to make improvements rather than move. Residential improvement spending is projected to slow to 2% growth in 2026, then rise 3% and 5% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. Home improvement spending is a key demand driver for painting and wall covering contractors.