Painting & Wall Covering Contractors NAICS 238320

Jul 18, 2026 - Remodeling Index Remains Positive

• The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) reading for the second quarter of 2026 was 61, down one point from the first quarter, according to a July 2026 report by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Any RMI reading over 50 indicates that most remodelers feel market conditions are good. In the second quarter, the Current Conditions Index portion of the RMI remained unchanged at 70 compared to Q1 2026. The Future Indicators Index component of the RMI declined by two points to 52. The NAHB noted that the lock-in effect of high mortgage rates may incentivize existing homeowners to renovate rather than move, but that inflation may prompt some projects to be postponed, especially larger ones.
• According to The New York Times, the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law in June, marking the largest federal housing package in a generation. The law encourages more housing through modest incentives, regulatory changes, support for build-to-rent communities, and reforms that could expand manufactured and modular housing. Over time, increased residential construction could create more demand for painting and wall covering contractors as new homes and rental developments move from planning to completion. The measure also streamlines some housing programs and gives cities more flexibility to use federal funds for housing, while reinforcing state and local efforts to increase supply. However, experts say the law is unlikely to lower housing costs quickly because local regulations, interest rates, limited funding, and the slow pace of construction remain significant obstacles.

• The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) decreased 1.9% in June 2026 to 271.7 (2000=100), up from the revised May reading of 277.1. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. On a monthly basis, the commercial planning component dropped by 6.8%, and institutional rose 10.9%. Dodge’s associate director of forecasting, Sarah Martin, said, "Despite June’s pullback, nonresidential planning remains on solid ground. Data center activity continued to drive the Index, but its pace moderated from the extraordinary levels seen in recent months and drove the DMI to pull back over the month. Otherwise, planning activity accelerated across nearly every other sector.”
• Fitch Ratings lowered its 2026 outlooks for US homebuilding and North American building products to deteriorating, citing weak affordability, mortgage rates near 6.5%, soft consumer sentiment, and slower housing turnover. Fitch expects new home sales to fall 2.5% in 2026, single-family starts to decline 4.5%, and remodeling demand to remain constrained, especially for big-ticket discretionary projects. The slowdown could reduce demand for new construction, renovations, and resale-driven upgrades in the hardware, plumbing, and HVAC equipment markets. However, repair, maintenance, and nondiscretionary categories, including plumbing repair, roofing repair, coatings, HVAC replacement parts, and essential equipment, should prove more resilient. Distributors may face lower volumes, margin pressure from inflation, and cautious customer spending, partly offset by nonresidential activity in data centers and power infrastructure.