Paper Products Distributors NAICS 4241

Oct 6, 2025 - Cardboard Box Demand Drops

• A decline in cardboard box consumption may signal reduced demand for packaging and labeling services. Industry insiders suggest box demand has fallen amid economic uncertainty among businesses, the impact of tariffs on trade, and softening consumer spending, according to The Wall Street Journal. A weak housing market has also reduced demand for boxes used in moving and packaging for construction materials and appliances. In August, International Paper said it would permanently close two containerboard mills in Georgia by the end of September, reducing the firm’s containerboard production capacity by 9%.
• US packaging papers and specialty packaging shipments rose 5% in August 2025 compared to the same time a year earlier, according to the American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA). Year-to-date, packaging papers and specialty packaging shipments declined 1% compared to the first eight months of 2024. Shipments of unbleached bags and sacks increased 6% in August 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, but were down 5.4% year-to-date. The operating rate for bleached packaging papers reached 78.2% in August, marking the highest rate since January 2025.

• The global folding carton market is valued at $132.8 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach $159.6 billion by 2030, according to market research firm Smithers. Folding carton volumes are projected to increase from 52.4 million metric tons to 63.1 million metric tons by 2030. By product, growth will be driven by collation and shrink-wrap films, as well as trays for fresh produce and food service. Confectionery, chilled food, food service, soft drinks, and beer are the fastest-growing end-use markets. The industry is being driven by government and consumer pressures to improve recyclability and to reduce single-use plastics.
• The US paper distribution industry is expected to experience sluggish sales growth in the coming years, and the overall economy's growth will outpace it. The industry’s year-over-year sales rose to 1.0% in 2024 after decreasing by 7% in 2023, according to Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. Sales growth is projected to rise to 1.1% in 2025, then see average annual growth of about 0.9% through 2029, according to Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc.