Paper Products Distributors NAICS 4241

Dec 6, 2025 - Store Brands Grow Faster than National Brands

• Distributors of paper-based packaging for foods and beverages may see demand shifts as consumers increasingly opt for store brands over national ones. Private labels are gaining ground in the retail market, as store brands outpace national brands, according to Packaging Dive. In the first 11 months of 2025, store brand unit sales increased 0.4%, while national brands declined 0.7%, according to market research firm Circana. Over the same period, dollar sales of store brands rose 3.6%, while national brands grew just 1.1%. Packaging manufacturers are seizing opportunities by partnering with private label producers and co-packers, showcasing innovations such as flexible pouches, fiber-based tubs, and compostable lids. As shoppers trade down to store brands amid economic uncertainty, packaging services are becoming a critical differentiator, enabling private labels to compete on quality, innovation, and value.
• US packaging papers and specialty packaging shipments rose 9% in October 2025 compared to the same time a year earlier, according to the American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA). One a year-to-date basis, packaging papers and specialty packaging shipments increased 1% compared to the first 10 months of 2024. Shipments of unbleached bags and sacks increased 8% in October 2025 compared to the same month in 2024, but were down 2.3% year-to-date. The operating rate for bleached packaging papers reached 80.8% in August, marking the highest rate in recent years.

• A decline in cardboard box consumption may signal reduced demand for packaging and labeling services. Industry insiders suggest box demand has fallen amid economic uncertainty among businesses, the impact of tariffs on trade, and softening consumer spending, according to The Wall Street Journal. A weak housing market has also reduced demand for boxes used in moving and packaging for construction materials and appliances. In August, International Paper said it would permanently close two containerboard mills in Georgia by the end of September, reducing the firm’s containerboard production capacity by 9%.
• The global folding carton market is valued at $132.8 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach $159.6 billion by 2030, according to market research firm Smithers. Folding carton volumes are projected to increase from 52.4 million metric tons to 63.1 million metric tons by 2030. By product, growth will be driven by collation and shrink-wrap films, as well as trays for fresh produce and food service. Confectionery, chilled food, food service, soft drinks, and beer are the fastest-growing end-use markets. The industry is being driven by government and consumer pressures to improve recyclability and to reduce single-use plastics.