Real Estate Appraisers NAICS 531320

Jul 16, 2025 - Many Would-Be First-Time Buyers Priced Out of the Market

• High home prices and mortgage rates have priced many would-be homebuyers out of the market, creating robust pent-up demand that’s unlikely to be realized in the near term, according to The Wall Street Journal. In 2024, there were about 1.1 million first-time buyers, compared to an annual average of about 2.1 million over the last 20 years, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). To afford a median-priced new home today, a buyer would need an income of $127,000 compared to $79,000 for the same home in 2021, according to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Industry watchers suggest that many first-time buyers may remain stuck on the sidelines, absent a significant drop in mortgage rates or a recession that pushes down home values.
• Private equity firm Blackstone is acquiring $2 billion in discounted commercial real-estate loans from Atlantic Union Bankshares, according to The Wall Street Journal. The latest move by Blackstone adds to its $20 billion spree in the distressed property debt market over the past two years. Many small and regional banks are grappling with depreciated property values for commercial loans they issued when interest rates were low. Many banks have been reluctant to sell troubled properties at a loss, hindering their ability to make new loans. However, Atlantic Union made its recent portfolio sale without recording a loss, thanks to marking the loans to market during its merger with Sandy Spring Bank. Similarly structured mergers among small and regional banks could spur more sales of commercial loan portfolios. Analysts anticipate increased bank consolidation, driven partly by favorable regulatory conditions, though high interest rates and economic uncertainty remain hurdles.

• New single-family home sales fell 13.7% month-over-month and were down 6.3% year-over-year in May 2025, according to the US Census Bureau. May’s total new home sales reached 623,000 units. According to Dow Jones estimates, Wall Street analysts had expected May sales to reach 695,000. In recent quarterly reports, some homebuilders said high interest rates and weaker consumer confidence weighed on demand. As sales of new homes remain soft, inventories of unsold homes are increasing. At the end of May, there were 507,000 new homes for sale, up 15% compared to May 2024. The number of unsold new homes in May was the highest since the summer of 2022, after the Federal Reserve began increasing interest rates.
• The price gap between new and existing homes is narrowing, according to National Association of Home Builders analysis of US Census Bureau data. In the first quarter of 2025, the median price for a new home was $416,900, only $14,600 more than the median existing home price. In Q1, the median price for a new home declined 2.32% year-over-year; the median price for an existing home rose 3.38% over the same period. The average price difference between new and existing homes over the last five years is $26,700, and over 10 years it’s $66,000. The price gap between new and existing homes has been closing as tight inventories of existing homes have pushed up prices. At the same time, builders have reduced lot and home sizes and offered incentives to attract buyers.