Restaurants NAICS 722511, 722513, 722514

Jul 14, 2025 - Spending Slowdown

• Consumer spending at small restaurants slowed in June versus May, according to new data from fintech company Fiserv, Nation’s Restaurant News reports. Fiserv’s Small Business Index shows that while small restaurants/independents experienced modest 0.4% year-over-year sales growth in June, month-over-month transactions declined by 2.6% and foot traffic dropped 2.5%. June’s negative monthly comparison followed a 5.6% month-over-month drop from April to May. Just 13 states experienced a positive performance in food service and drinking places in June, versus 34 in May. The spending slowdown signals caution for the restaurant industry where traffic, sales, and hiring trends have been mixed so far this year,” according to the National Restaurant Association’s Economic Outlook for mid-2025. The association’s cautious outlook is supported by recent surveys from PopMenu and KPMG indicating that consumers plan to pull back on their restaurant spending amid ongoing economic concerns.
• Restaurants are projected to add 490,000 jobs this summer, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 27th annual Eating and Drinking Place Summer Employment Forecast published in June. Summer hiring is projected to be strongest in Northeastern states, including Maine, Rhode Island, and Delaware, as well as in Alaska, which are projected to see the largest proportional increases in restaurant employment. Per the NRA, the increase in hiring is fueled by a stronger labor pool, especially teens and young adults, returning to the workforce in numbers not seen in years. Average wages at restaurants and other eating places rose 4.4% in April compared to a year ago to $18.91 per hour, pennies shy of their high in March, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Fitch Ratings lowered its 2025 outlook for the US restaurant sector to Deteriorating from Neutral in May, citing weakening consumer sentiment on discretionary spending and renewed inflationary pressures on the sector’s profitability. The credit rating agency predicts a low-single-digit decline in restaurant spending this year, versus previous expectations of flat to slightly positive. Fitch’s downgrade followed data company Technomic’s lowering of its 2025 projection, from about 5.1% sales growth to 3.4% to 4.6%, citing “uncertainty” for its adjustment. Consumer sentiment plunged to near record-lows in May as consumers braced for more inflationary impact amid President Trump’s trade war. According to Fitch, weakening consumer sentiment is expected to further reduce discretionary spending throughout 2025, as persistent inflation pressures disposable income, and tariffs exacerbate food inflation.
• As demand for hard-to-get reservations has grown, the restaurant industry’s equivalent of ticket scalpers have been scooping up reservations and selling them online, the National Restaurant Association reports. Technology enables individuals and companies to scrape reservations from legitimate restaurant websites or partner reservation sites and then sell them on unauthorized online resale sites and social media, per the NRA. The practice is creating challenges for restaurants, like costly no-shows, staffing needs to manage the expectations of customers who purchase these third-party reservations, and potential damage to their brand. Amid rising frustration from diners and restaurant operators, state governments have begun working with the restaurant industry to create a regulatory framework to fix the system by returning control of reservations to restaurants. A recent survey of diners at full-service restaurants found nearly 2 in 5 were aware of third-party websites that charge for reservations and nearly 15% said they’d paid for a reservation.