Restaurants NAICS 722511, 722513, 722514

Jan 14, 2026 - Rising Minimum Wages

• Rising minimum wages in 19 states starting this month will provide a pay hike to an estimated 8.3 million workers, The Wall Street Journal reports. The increases will significantly raise labor costs for the restaurant industry, where wages make up a large share of operating expenses. Washington’s new $17.13 rate and local increases such as Los Angeles’ upcoming $30 wage for hotel and airport workers illustrate how quickly labor floors are rising in major dining markets. These increases will pressure restaurants to adjust menus, raise prices, reduce hours, or adopt more automation to offset higher payroll costs. Economists note that restaurants often have limited ability to absorb wage hikes, which can slow hiring. With more states moving toward $15-plus minimums and consumers still sensitive to price increases, restaurants face a challenging balancing act between maintaining margins and retaining staff in a tightening labor environment.
• Sales growth by pizza chains is lagging other formats, The Wall Street Journal reports. Once the second-most common US restaurant type, today pizzerias are outnumbered by coffee shops and Mexican food eateries, according to industry data cited by WSJ. Rising prices have made a $20 pizza feel less competitive against cheaper fast‑food bundles, frozen options, or home cooking, intensifying price wars among chains. Stagnation has led to bankruptcies at several regional pizza brands and strategic upheaval at major players like Pizza Hut and Papa John’s, which are exploring sales, closing stores, or overhauling operations, per WSJ. Domino’s is gaining share through aggressive value deals, while dine‑in pizza formats struggle with high operating costs. To stay relevant, chains are focusing on menu upgrades, operational consistency, and brand refreshes. The trend highlights a broader industry challenge: consumers are becoming more selective, pushing restaurants to compete harder on value, quality, and variety.

• The three dominant themes forecast to shape US menus in 2026 are comfort, global flavors, and value, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 2026 What’s Hot Culinary Forecast published in November. Based on surveys of hundreds of culinary professionals polled in October, the report shows consumers gravitating toward nostalgic, familiar foods, like smashed burgers, and global influences such as Caribbean curry bowls. Diners are also seeking flavor escapism and blending comfort with adventurous tastes. Not surprisingly, affordability and wellness remain central, driving interest in value menu options, protein‑packed meals, and low‑alcohol beverages. These trends reflect a broader desire for satisfying, approachable dishes that still feel fresh and globally inspired. For operators, the forecast signals strong demand for menu items that balance comfort, creativity, and cost‑consciousness heading into the new year. Allergen-friendly menus, ingredient transparency, and compostable/reusable packaging are other trends for 2026, per NRA.
• A look ahead to 2026 at November’s Restaurant Finance & Development Conference forecasts the bifurcated restaurant market that emerged in 2025 will persist, exacerbated by ongoing economic uncertainty, Restaurant Dive reports. The most recent restaurant earnings season saw a stark divide between consumer segments that are still spending liberally, and those that have pulled back on discretionary expenditures. As consumer spending diverges, brands that deliver clear value or appeal to higher-income diners are outperforming those reliant on more price‑sensitive segments. Restaurants with weak value perception are seeing traffic decline, while chains that balance everyday value with quality are reporting stronger sales and margins. Intense competition around the $10–$12 price point means operators must sharpen pricing strategies and control costs to capture value‑oriented diners, restaurant executives said, adding that brands that stay focused on core operational excellence rather than over‑investing in tech experimentation are better positioned to retain customers.