RV Dealers NAICS 441210

Apr 14, 2025 - Growth Slowdown Expected for Industry

• The US RV dealer industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.19% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy's projected growth. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services, but noted that consumers so far have maintained spending on goods even as spending on travel and live entertainment has risen.
• A recent survey by RV Business found that industry executives think the developing global trade war will negatively impact the RV industry. About 55% of respondents believe the tariff activity will create a major negative impact and increase retail RV prices by at least 20%. About 15% said retail RV prices would grow between 10% to 19%, and 15% said it was too soon to tell. Nearly 60% said the trade war would increase the costs of doing business by at least 20% while 11% said costs would rise between 10% and 19%, and the same percentage said costs would decrease by 20%.

• RV shipments were up 6% in February 2025 year over year, according to a report from the RV Industry Association (RVIA). The February 2025 shipments totaled 32,871 units shipped through the end of the month. Per RVIA President and CEO Craig Kirby, “While the industry has seen modest shipment growth this year, it’s essential to remain cautiously optimistic. The market is showing signs of recovery, but we must stay mindful of potential economic headwinds and the need for sustained consumer confidence.” Year to date, total RV shipments were up 12.7% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 60,500 units. The towables category grew 9.9% in February 2025 year over year while motorhomes saw a decline of 20.1%.
• Consumer confidence levels fell in March 2025 month over month, dropping by 7.2 points to 92.9, according to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist of Global Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that the segment driving March’s decline was consumers over 55 years old, and the decline spanned all income groups with the exception being households earning over $125,000. Per Guichard, “Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022.” Purchasing plans for homes and new cars declined while big-ticket purchases rose on a six-month moving average basis, which may reflect plans to purchase certain items before impending tariffs lead to price increases.