Sawmills and Wood Preservation NAICS 3211

Sep 23, 2025 - Sawmills Trim Production Amid Drop in Lumber Futures

• Sawmills may experience margin compression as lumber prices fall, and many fixed costs remain the same or rise. Lumber futures have plunged since early August, signaling economic caution amid trade uncertainty and a weakening housing market, according to The Wall Street Journal. Spot prices saw a similar drop over the same period. A glut of wood - stockpiled in anticipation of higher tariffs on Canadian imports - has collided with softening demand, prompting major producers like Interfor and Domtar to curtail output. While high lumber prices during the pandemic stemmed from inflation and supply chain strain, current declines result from reduced construction activity and tariff volatility. Analysts warn that further production cuts are likely as the market adjusts to oversupply and shifting trade dynamics. Underutilized sawmill capacity erodes margins by reducing economies of scale and increasing per-board-foot production costs.
• Mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 1% in August 2025 compared to the same month a year earlier, but were down 6% from July 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The MBA’s seasonally adjusted estimate for new home sales in August was up 6% from July’s pace of 685,000 units. August marked the third consecutive rise in estimated new home sales. According to MBA Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist Joel Kan, housing inventory is rising, giving potential buyers more options while reducing upward pressure on housing prices.

• The average 30-year mortgage rate was the lowest in nearly a year in the second week of September, increasing buying power for would-be homeowners, but headwinds for a housing recovery remain, according to The Wall Street Journal. The week of September 18, the weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.26%, down significantly from 7% at the start of 2025, and marking the lowest rate since October 2024, according to Freddie Mac. Industry insiders suggest the frozen housing market may begin to thaw when rates are consistently below 6%, a financial and psychological signpost for many. However, affordability remains a challenge as home prices are about 50% higher than in 2019. Insurance and property tax costs are also elevated. Signs of a slower labor market may also give some potential buyers pause.
• Home builder confidence in the single-family market was unchanged in August but remained solidly in negative territory in September, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Home builder sentiment, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), remained at 32 in September 2025, unchanged from August’s reading. Any HMI reading over 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as good than poor. Home builder sentiment has been stuck in the 30s since May 2025, but in the most recent survey, builders were optimistic that interest rates would move lower and stimulate demand. The HMI survey also showed that 39% of builders reduced home prices in September to lure potential buyers off the sidelines, although the average price reduction of 5% has remained unchanged since November 2024.