School & Employee Bus Transportation NAICS 485410

Mar 31, 2026 - School Bus Electrification Momentum Slows

• Electrification of the US school bus fleet is accelerating but remains in an early, policy-driven stage. Of roughly 490,000-500,000 school buses nationwide, about 90% still run on diesel, while just over 5,100 electric buses are currently in operation as of 2025, with around 13,800 funded or ordered - about 3% of the total fleet (according to the Electric School Bus Initiative). Growth has been rapid, with electric buses rising from ~1% of new sales in 2020 to 7.5% in 2024, largely driven by the Environmental Protection Agency’’s $5 billion Clean School Bus Program, which has funded approximately 8,600 electric buses. Momentum has recently slowed, however, due to funding uncertainty, infrastructure constraints, and manufacturer instability. While electric buses offer health benefits and lower long-term operating costs, high upfront expenses and charging challenges mean widespread adoption will likely take decades, leaving the industry in a transitional phase.
• Bus transportation for schools and workers stayed busy - and under pressure - in 2025. Roughly 480,000 school buses continued moving about 25 million K-12 students nationwide, but staffing remained the choke point: employment in school and employee bus transportation was still nearly 10% below 2019 levels, even after modest year-over-year gains. Many districts reported route consolidations or staggered schedules as a result. On the worker side, employer-provided shuttle and commuter bus services kept expanding, helping drive a school and employee bus services market estimated at roughly $60-75 billion annually. Corporate shuttles grew fastest around large campuses and logistics hubs, where buses can replace hundreds of daily car trips. To cope, operators doubled down on GPS tracking, route optimization, and scheduling software, while slowly upgrading fleets. Electric and alternative-fuel buses still make up a small share, but purchases continued to climb through 2025.

• The national school bus driver shortage remains a problem despite modest gains over the past year, according to the Economic Policy Institute. The number of school bus drivers grew by about 2,300, or 1.1%, from 2024 to 2025, marking the first significant increase since the pandemic. The industry still employs around 21,200 fewer drivers than in 2019, a decline of 9.5%. Between 2019 and 2023, the workforce had dropped by an even steeper 15%, underscoring how deep the shortage remains. Average wages have risen 4.2% in the past year, the largest annual gain since COVID-19 disruptions, but many districts say pay increases alone aren’t solving recruitment challenges. Private contractors now handle 38% of all student transportation, a sign of growing outsourcing as public systems struggle to fill routes. The shortage in particular disrupts schedules for students with disabilities, leading to longer commutes and increased absenteeism.
• US transit agencies in 2024 expanded bus purchases to 4,500 new buses in order to modernize fleets and support sustainability goals, but the surge in buying exposed a cost problem: American cities are paying far more for buses than their international counterparts. A research paper from the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute found US agencies often spend 50% to 100% above global averages for buses, particularly on electric models. The paper blames fragmented purchasing across cities, unique and cumbersome customization requirements, and “Buy America” rules that limit cheaper foreign components. The result has been reduced competition and higher costs from slower fleet turnover to delayed adoption of cleaner technologies, and less funding for upgrades or service expansions. The inefficiencies are straining municipal budgets and leaving cities unable to meet rising demand for reliable, modern, and environmentally-friendly transit options, according to the paper’s authors.