Shoe Stores NAICS 458210

Jul 10, 2025 - Footwear Execs See Weaker Sales Outlook: Survey

• The Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA) released the results of its Q2 2025 Shoe Executive Business Survey, which shows growing concerns among industry leaders over weakening consumer demand, higher costs, and unpredictable tariff policies. The survey showed a significant downturn in industry confidence, with 82% of respondents expecting a weaker US economy over the next six months, 88% foreseeing less demand from footwear shoppers, and 49% expecting lower comparable store sales in the next six months. Executives expect to see a jump in landed costs in the second half of the year, with 60% anticipating double-digit increases. Consumers will feel the effects as well, with 75% of footwear executives anticipating retail prices to grow by more than 5%. Leaders say they will trim costs during the remainder of the year, by curbing capital expenditures, cutting hiring, and reducing operating costs.
• According to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal, retailers are cutting back on free shipping to offset tariff costs. Some retailers are eliminating free shipping while others are raising the amount that customers must spend to quality for free shipping, as a way to pass along higher costs to consumers. Retail-technology provider Narvar noted that the average minimum-order threshold for retailers to offer free shipping has increased from $82 in 2023 to $103 in 2025. Adjusting the shipping price is appealing to retailers since it does not change the front-facing shopping price to consumers, per Narvar CEO Anisa Kumar.

• Sales for the US shoe stores industry are projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.92% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and the government. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a new survey in Chain Store Age, nearly 80% of US consumers said they halted a footwear purchase due to higher costs in 2025, up 12 percentage points from last year and the top reason cited by respondents for abandoning a purchase. The latest US Consumer Footwear Survey conducted by AlixPartners and the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America organization finds that cost is a key factor in determining whether consumers follow through with a purchase. An item not being on sale (59%) was the second most common reason cited for abandoning a purchase. Consumers said they will reduce their spending across all shoe categories, with the top declines being in the work shoes/boots (29%), fashion/dress (26%), athleisure/multi-activity (17%), and casual (16%) categories. According to Bryan Eshelman, a partner and managing director at AlixParnters, consumers are cutting back across categories to focus on necessities amid economic uncertainty. He noted, “Consumers have been hit by inflation and supply-chain disruption in recent years, and now they’re worried about the price impacts of trade policy.”