Shoe Stores NAICS 458210

May 12, 2025 - Slower Growth Forecast

• Sales for the US shoe stores industry are projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.92% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and the government. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a new survey in Chain Store Age, nearly 80% of US consumers said they halted a footwear purchase due to higher costs in 2025, up 12 percentage points from last year and the top reason cited by respondents for abandoning a purchase. The latest US Consumer Footwear Survey conducted by AlixPartners and the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America organization finds that cost is a key factor in determining whether consumers follow through with a purchase. An item not being on sale (59%) was the second most common reason cited for abandoning a purchase. Consumers said they will reduce their spending across all shoe categories, with the top declines being in the work shoes/boots (29%), fashion/dress (26%), athleisure/multi-activity (17%), and casual (16%) categories. According to Bryan Eshelman, a partner and managing director at AlixParnters, consumers are cutting back across categories to focus on necessities amid economic uncertainty. He noted, “Consumers have been hit by inflation and supply-chain disruption in recent years, and now they’re worried about the price impacts of trade policy.”

• According to the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA) trade group, footwear sales dropped 26.2% for the week ending February 22, 2025, compared to the same week a year ago. Sales fell again in March, falling 10% for the week ending March 8, year over year. FDRA CEO Matt Priest said the decline is caused by caution due to tariff uncertainties. Per Priest, “This isn’t just a routine market shift—it’s a clear sign that rising inflation and the looming threat of new tariffs directly impact consumer behavior.” The Trump Administration has begun implementing a range of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, as well as on products such as steel and aluminum. CNN reports that many footwear retailers have exposure to tariffs and will pass on some of the price increases to customers. Boot Barn, for example, sources approximately 55% of its goods from China, Canada, and Mexico.
• According to a report in CFO Dive, consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, fell in large part due to tariff uncertainty and an expectation of higher prices. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”