Sporting and Recreational Goods Wholesalers NAICS 423910

May 29, 2025 - Cooler Growth Forecast

• The US sporting and recreational goods wholesalers industry is projected to grow at a 3.77% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, slower than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. Retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. Another factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. In 2025 and into the forecast period, real disposable income may be supported by continuing nominal wage growth, lower inflation rates, and higher employment levels. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a new survey from the National Association of Wholesale-Distributors (NAW), tariffs are driving cost increases and creating operational challenges across the wholesale distribution industry. The survey was done in collaboration with Modern Distribution Management (MDM) Research. About a third of distributors say they face price increases of 25% or higher. According to Eric Hoplin, NAW’s CEO, “Though these increases haven’t hit store shelves yet, it’s an indication of where prices are headed.” About 62% of distributors expect their cost of goods will rise by 10% or more in 2025, while 67% of respondents report a negative impact on their business. Nearly 40% of respondents said more than 20% of their inventory originates in China, and only 17% can shift to domestic or non-impacted suppliers. Operational actions being taken by distributors include slowing inventory replacement (48%), delaying new hiring (44%), cutting capital investments (37%), and reducing discretionary spending (60%).

• A new report by McKinsey revealed that 84% of global sporting goods industry executives have expressed concern about the impact of the geopolitical environment on their business. The report said potential tariff increases in 2025 could have significant effects on the sporting goods sector in terms of pricing and supply chain management. McKinsey said companies can prepare for tariffs by reviewing their supply chain footprints and inventory management practices to derisk and diversify their supply chains. Sporting goods companies also must manage shifting consumer demands, as shoppers continue to be cautious amid persistent inflation. The global sporting goods sector saw a 7% annual growth rate from 2021 to 2024 and a growth outlook of 6% a year from 2024 to 2029, with slowdowns expected in the Asia-Pacific, Western Europe, and Latin America regions. Meanwhile, North America is expected to grow from $114 billion in 2017 to $209 billion in 2029.
• Sports participation by Americans reached a new high in 2024, according to the Sports & Fitness Industry Association’s (SFIA) Topline Participation Report. The report found that 80% of Americans, or 247.1 million people, participated in at least one sport, fitness exercise, or outdoor research activity in 2024, the highest rate since SFIA has been tracking activity levels. The report tracks participation rates of Americans aged six and older across more than 120 different sports, fitness, and outdoor activities. Pickleball remains the fastest-growing sport, with participation up 311% from three years ago. The racquet sports category is performing well, with five out of seven racquet sports posting higher year-over-year participation totals. Many sports featured in the 2024 Paris Olympic games saw an uptick in participation in 2024 including wrestling, basketball, volleyball, and track and field.