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Apr 15, 2026 - Dodge Momentum Index Rises

• The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) increased 1.8% in March 2026 to 250.5 (2000=100), up from the revised March reading of 246.2. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. On a monthly basis, the commercial planning component improved by 7%, while the institutional component declined by 8.8%. Dodge’s associate director of forecasting, Sarah Martin, said, "Planning momentum in March was powered almost entirely by data center projects, with most other sectors easing back,” said Sarah Martin, Associate Director of Forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “For some categories, this reflects a natural reset after the outsized growth in late 2025. But for others, elevated macroeconomic risks are likely beginning to feed into planning decisions."
• The total value of private US construction put in place dropped by 0.6% in January 2026 compared to the prior month, according to the US Census Bureau. Residential spending fell 0.8%, as multifamily spending dropped 0.7% and single-family construction spending declined 0.2%. Nonresidential spending decreased 0.4%. Only four subsegments of the nonresidential building sector saw growth in January compared to December 2025: office (+1.1%), healthcare (+0.4%), communication (+0.2%), and lodging (+0.1%). The remaining nonresidential building categories posted flat or negative growth in January 2026, including commercial (-0.1% from December), educational (-1.1%), religious (-1.1%), amusement and recreation (-0.9%), transportation (-0.2%), manufacturing (-2%), and power (0%).

• North American construction and engineering spending is expected to remain flat in 2026 after declining by 1% in 2025, according to FMI’s second-quarter 2026 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook. Within building segments, office construction is projected to grow 6% in 2026, driven by strong data center demand, while health care (+2%) also expands amid large hospital projects. Education, and amusement and recreation are expected to remain stable but notch flat spending growth in 2026. Several segments will decline, including lodging (-4%), commercial (-6%), and public safety (-2%), reflecting financing constraints and uneven demand, while manufacturing construction is also projected to fall (-2%) following a surge in prior years. Residential building activity continues to weaken, with single-family construction forecast to drop 2% due to affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. Multifamily spending is projected to be down 1% as high supply levels weigh on rent growth and new development.
• Weak nonresidential building construction activity may soften demand for architectural paints. Construction spending for nonresidential buildings is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 and 2027, according to the latest American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast. Spending on nonresidential building construction is expected to rise 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Through 2027, commercial facility growth will be led by data centers, with spending increasing 26.3% in 2026 and 16.5% in 2027. However, offices are expected to see a sharp decline in spending over the forecast period, while warehouse and retail will see weak growth this year and modest gains in 2027. Manufacturing construction spending will fall 3.9% in 2026 and drop 2.8% next year. Spending on institutional projects will grow 2.7% this year, and 2.8% in 2027, led by steady growth in the health sector, but educational, and amusement and recreation project spending will be flat.