Swimming Pool and Spa Retailers NAICS 459999

May 30, 2025 - Slower Growth Expected

• Sales for the US swimming pool and spa retailers industry are projected to grow at a 2.25% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, slower than the expected growth of the overall economy, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and the government. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. In addition, higher interest rates limit demand by increasing the costs of debt-financed spending, which affects residential construction and vehicle sales as well as credit card purchases. Another factor that may dampen consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. Lower inflation supports an increase of real disposable income by 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
• According to the 2025 State of the Industry: Retail Report in Aqua Magazine, nearly 50% of retailers reported a decrease in revenues in 2024 compared to 2020 when only 1% reported a drop. About 36% of retailers reported an increase in revenue in 2024 year over year. The majority of retailers (52%) feel optimistic heading into 2025. Core product lines seeing the most growth in 2024 were water care (26%), hot tubs (23%), and pool equipment (23%). Wellness-focused segments also gained traction with customers, with saunas (9%), cold plunges (5%), and swim spa segments (3%) posting growth. About 10% of retailers said they saw growth in other categories including service, inground pools, and renovation. Nearly 40% of retailers said they saw an increase in first-time pool or spa buyers in 2024, suggesting a healthy portion of the market is being driven by new entrants.

• Single-family housing starts, which are a leading indicator of swimming pool construction and pool supplies demand, fell by 12% in April 2025 year over year, according to National Association of Home Builders data in ProBuilder. New home construction has been dampened by ongoing concerns around high mortgage rates, and tariffs have driven up building materials costs. Housing starts of combined single-family and multifamily saw gains of nearly 20% year to date in the Northeast, 4.4% in the Midwest, and 3.4% in the West. Meanwhile, there was a 7.4% decline in the South year to date.
• Consumer confidence levels, an indicator of discretionary spending, fell in April 2025 month over month, dropping by 7.9 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. In addition, the final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”