Swimming Pool and Spa Retailers NAICS 459999

Jul 31, 2025 - Single-Family Starts Weaken

• Single-family housing starts, which are a leading indicator of swimming pool construction and pool supplies demand, decreased in June 2025 year over year, according to National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) data. New home construction has been hampered by ongoing concerns around high mortgage rates, rising inventories, and supply-side issues driving up building materials costs. Per the report, the June reading of 1.32 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development maintained this pace for the next 12 months. Within this number, single-family starts fell 4.6% to an 883,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate and were down 10% in June 2025 year over year. One positive region for single-family home starts was the Midwest, which saw housing starts of single-family construction grow 10%. Meanwhile, there was a 12.4% decline in the South year to date, as well as declines in the Northeast and West.
• Consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, increased slightly in July 2025, rising to 61.8 in preliminary July data from 60.7 in June, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan hit a recent peak in December of 74, buoyed following the presidential election, but dropped to 52.2 in April 2025 as consumers expressed uncertainty about tariff effects and rising inflation. In July, respondents’ inflation expectations for the coming year were an anticipated price increase of 4.4%, which was tracking higher than in January, when respondents expected prices to grow by 3.9%. However, July’s inflation expectation results were lower than June’s, when respondents expected a 5% price increase for the coming year. The index serves as a predictor of consumer spending as it indicates consumers’ perception of their financial prospects and the broader economy.

• Sales for the US swimming pool and spa retailers industry are projected to grow at a 2.25% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, slower than the expected growth of the overall economy, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and the government. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. In addition, higher interest rates limit demand by increasing the costs of debt-financed spending, which affects residential construction and vehicle sales as well as credit card purchases. Another factor that may dampen consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. Lower inflation supports an increase of real disposable income by 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
• According to the 2025 State of the Industry: Retail Report in Aqua Magazine, nearly 50% of retailers reported a decrease in revenues in 2024 compared to 2020 when only 1% reported a drop. About 36% of retailers reported an increase in revenue in 2024 year over year. The majority of retailers (52%) feel optimistic heading into 2025. Core product lines seeing the most growth in 2024 were water care (26%), hot tubs (23%), and pool equipment (23%). Wellness-focused segments also gained traction with customers, with saunas (9%), cold plunges (5%), and swim spa segments (3%) posting growth. About 10% of retailers said they saw growth in other categories including service, inground pools, and renovation. Nearly 40% of retailers said they saw an increase in first-time pool or spa buyers in 2024, suggesting a healthy portion of the market is being driven by new entrants.