Title Abstract and Settlement Offices NAICS 541191

Jan 23, 2026 - Lock-in Effect Keeps People from Moving

• Millions of homeowners remain locked into mortgage rates at or below 4%, a dynamic that continues to freeze the housing market even as current rates fall, according to The Wall Street Journal. The lock in effect has kept inventory depressed for three years, since many owners refuse to give up ultralow loans secured during 2020 and 2021. Near record home prices, rising insurance costs, and higher property taxes are adding to affordability pressures, and economists do not expect mortgage rates to fall enough to motivate most owners to move. While lower rates and softening prices have boosted activity in parts of the South and West, overall existing home sales remain near 30-year lows. Analysts say it may take years for incomes to catch up, leaving only those who must relocate willing to sell while discretionary movers continue to stay put.
• New single-family home sales fell 0.1% month-over-month but were up 18.7% year-over-year in October 2025, according to the US Census Bureau. The October new home sales data was delayed due to the 43-day government shutdown. October's total new home sales reached 737,000 units, following two previous months of gains. Some industry watchers suggest that while mortgage rates gradually inched lower throughout 2025, they are likely to remain elevated, Reuters reports. Mortgage rates closely track the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which is under upward pressure from the federal deficit and above-target inflation. There are emerging signals that labor-market concerns are weighing on new-home purchase demand.

• Sales of existing US homes increased by 5.1% in December from November and were up 1.4% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, "2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales. However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after seasonal adjustments, were the strongest in nearly 3 years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month."
• Multifamily sales are expected to accelerate in 2026 as buyers and sellers grow more aligned on pricing, interest rates stabilize, and transaction volume improves, according to Multifamily Dive. Industry insiders suggest distress remains limited, although leverage issues and maturing loans could prompt more sales by mid-2026. Investors are increasingly drawn to coastal markets with steadier rent growth, while oversupply in the Sunbelt is expected to ease as new construction slows and rents stabilize. Ample debt and equity remain available, thanks to higher lending caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, although smaller sponsors face a tighter investor appetite. Private capital is driving most acquisitions as several smaller REITs pursue liquidation or strategic reviews, while larger REITs stay sidelined until pricing adjusts. Together, these forces indicate a more active, yet cautiously optimistic, multifamily market.