Trucking Companies NAICS 484110, 484121, 484122, 484210, 484220, 484230

Oct 24, 2025 - Trucking Freight Tonnage Falls

• US for-hire truck freight tonnage slipped 0.9% in September 2025, according to the American Trucking Association, following two months of modest gains. The ATA Truck Tonnage Index fell to 114.2 from 115.3 in August, reflecting ongoing softness in freight demand despite some improvement earlier in the year. Year-to-date, tonnage is up just 0.2% from 2024 levels and remains about 3.9% below its peak three years ago. The decline highlights continued weakness in manufacturing output and retail shipments, key drivers of freight volume. For the trucking industry, this sluggish demand means continued pressure on rates and fleet utilization, with many carriers delaying equipment purchases and trimming operations to maintain margins. Analysts say the market remains oversupplied, though gradual improvements in housing and consumer spending could stabilize volumes later in 2025. Most fleets face a competitive environment marked by tighter profits, excess capacity, and cautious expansion plans.
• US trucking capacity faces import volumes decline, especially at major inland hubs like Chicago, Dallas, and Las Vegas. According to the Journal of Commerce, truck availability at some inland hubs has dropped by 10-15% compared with the same time last year. Fewer containers arriving at ports means fewer trucks and drivers available to move goods further away from US coastal regions. The imbalance pushes spot rates higher and makes it harder for carriers to avoid deadheading. The empty miles from deadhead trips raise costs for both trucking companies and shippers. While overall freight demand has softened slightly, regional bottlenecks are growing, creating a slower flow of goods deeper inland. Industry experts warn that the longer the US engages in worldwide trade disputes, the disruptions and unpredictability of incoming trade volumes will continue to be a drag on the sector.

• The demise of several long-established California trucking carriers this year (including 40-year-old TGS Transportation and GSC Enterprises) due to the strain of three years of weak freight demand and rising costs offers a snapshot of broader industry problems. Increasing numbers of carriers in the state have gone under from low freight rates since late 2022 (revenue declines of 15–20% annually for some); plus high labor, fuel, insurance, and regulatory costs; including stricter state rules on emissions and employment classification. Analysts warn these failures are more than isolated and point to systemic stress in the trucking sector, where many smaller carriers are already folding while overall capacity remains oversupplied. Amid the disruption brought on by US tariffs, the trucking industry faces growing financial vulnerability, raising concerns that more firms, particularly those operating on thin margins, will continue to struggle or even go out of business in 2025 if the market and geopolitical situation does not improve.
• Freight transportation forecaster FTR Transportation Intelligence downgraded its prediction for production levels of North American Class 8 trucks as the uncertainties in the market from US tariffs hamper new order demand. FTR’s adjusted prediction calls for shipments of about 240,000 Class 8 trucks in 2025, down from the previously estimated 288,000. Excess truck inventory and weak freight demand from tariffs have put the trucking industry in a bind and pushes a planned rebound of the industry into 2026 and maybe even 2027, per FTR experts. Equipment makers are pulling back on production to compensate, with Paccar - maker of Peterbilt and Kenmore trucks - scaling back its 2025 sales forecast, while engine maker Cummins delayed the launch of its latest heavy duty diesel engine from this year until the end of 2026. Trucking companies also worry about potential future tariffs on Class 8 trucks and parts themselves.