Trucking Companies NAICS 484110, 484121, 484122, 484210, 484220, 484230

Sep 10, 2025 - Heavy Duty Truck Production Forecast for 2025 Downgraded

• Freight transportation forecaster FTR Transportation Intelligence downgraded its prediction for production levels of North American Class 8 trucks as the uncertainties in the market from US tariffs hamper new order demand. FTR’s adjusted prediction calls for shipments of about 240,000 Class 8 trucks in 2025, down from the previously estimated 288,000. Excess truck inventory and weak freight demand from tariffs have put the trucking industry in a bind and pushes a planned rebound of the industry into 2026 and maybe even 2027, per FTR experts. Equipment makers are pulling back on production to compensate, with Paccar - maker of Peterbilt and Kenmore trucks - scaling back its 2025 sales forecast, while engine maker Cummins delayed the launch of its latest heavy duty diesel engine from this year until the end of 2026. Trucking companies also worry about potential future tariffs on Class 8 trucks and parts themselves.
• The freight trucking industry increased both volume of shipped goods and customer spending in Q2 2025 for the first time in three years, a welcome bright spot for an industry having a tough year of tariff woes and overall economic unease. The US Bank National Shipments Index rose 2.4% from Q1, while the National Spend Index grew 1.2%. All five regional trends also improved shipment volume over Q1, with the Southwest leading the way at 6.7%. While positive in the short term, the year-over-year results still show a shrinking industry - shipments down 9.8% and spending dropping 4.9% compared to Q2 2024. Amid an economic environment of uneven manufacturing activity, marginal consumer spending growth, and an up and down housing market, industry experts caution that the positive financial results could be from lower trucking capacity rather than higher demand from customers.

• Heavy duty truck orders fell significantly in Q2 2025 amid low demand from freight carriers with tariff concerns and the rescinding of EV mandates driving the dip. According to Freight Transportation Research (FTR), the most recent 12-month sales cycle that ended in July showed a 15% year-over-year drop in new truck orders. The industry expects the sector’s performance for the rest of the year to be even worse. Engine maker Cummins CEO Jennifer Rumsey said in a recent earnings call that the company expects demand for North American heavy and medium duty trucks to dip by as much as 30% by the end of Q3. “The duration of this reduced demand in North America truck markets will largely depend on the trajectory of the broader economy, the evolution of trade and tariff policies and the pace at which regulatory clarity emerges,” said Rumsey.
• Autonomous trucks being tested in select markets in the US are now driving at night, extending beyond daytime, and primarily hauling food and other products that need refrigeration. Startup Aurora Innovation operates driverless trucks in Texas on a Houston-Dallas route, and has upgraded its technology to allow the trucks to “see” better at night, a significant challenge for the nascent rigs. About a dozen states allow autonomous trucks on the road, but there are no consistent federal regulations on their use, leaving rulemaking up to a patchwork of state oversight. Autonomous trucks hauling goods at night have the potential to shake up the entire long-haul transportation industry. Companies will be able to leave exhausting, long-haul runs to the driverless trucks, allowing younger drivers and newly licensed drivers to focus more on local deliveries, improving work-life balance for drivers and squelching burnout.