Trucking Companies NAICS 484110, 484121, 484122, 484210, 484220, 484230

Aug 21, 2025 - Shipping Volume and Customer Spending Tick Up in Q2

• The freight trucking industry increased both volume of shipped goods and customer spending in Q2 2025 for the first time in three years, a welcome bright spot for an industry having a tough year of tariff woes and overall economic unease. The US Bank National Shipments Index rose 2.4% from Q1, while the National Spend Index grew 1.2%. All five regional trends also improved shipment volume over Q1, with the Southwest leading the way at 6.7%. While positive in the short term, the year-over-year results still show a shrinking industry - shipments down 9.8% and spending dropping 4.9% compared to Q2 2024. Amid an economic environment of uneven manufacturing activity, marginal consumer spending growth, and an up and down housing market, industry experts caution that the positive financial results could be from lower trucking capacity rather than higher demand from customers.
• Heavy duty truck orders fell significantly in Q2 2025 amid low demand from freight carriers with tariff concerns and the rescinding of EV mandates driving the dip. According to Freight Transportation Research (FTR), the most recent 12-month sales cycle that ended in July showed a 15% year-over-year drop in new truck orders. The industry expects the sector’s performance for the rest of the year to be even worse. Engine maker Cummins CEO Jennifer Rumsey said in a recent earnings call that the company expects demand for North American heavy and medium duty trucks to dip by as much as 30% by the end of Q3. “The duration of this reduced demand in North America truck markets will largely depend on the trajectory of the broader economy, the evolution of trade and tariff policies and the pace at which regulatory clarity emerges,” said Rumsey.

• Autonomous trucks being tested in select markets in the US are now driving at night, extending beyond daytime, and primarily hauling food and other products that need refrigeration. Startup Aurora Innovation operates driverless trucks in Texas on a Houston-Dallas route, and has upgraded its technology to allow the trucks to “see” better at night, a significant challenge for the nascent rigs. About a dozen states allow autonomous trucks on the road, but there are no consistent federal regulations on their use, leaving rulemaking up to a patchwork of state oversight. Autonomous trucks hauling goods at night have the potential to shake up the entire long-haul transportation industry. Companies will be able to leave exhausting, long-haul runs to the driverless trucks, allowing younger drivers and newly licensed drivers to focus more on local deliveries, improving work-life balance for drivers and squelching burnout.
• Trucking companies expect freight demand to remain flat this year as the industry heads into its busiest time of the year when retailers load up on back-to-school and holiday products. Whipsawing US tariff policies causing fast shifts in import and inventory volume hit trucking hard in a year when the industry expected to make a comeback from a three-year decline. The Cass Freight Index, which measures US shipping demand, fell 4% year over year in May as companies who stocked up on inventory ahead of tariffs now have less use for freight transportation, squelching demand. The overall effect is sinking freight rates, with the average contract rate for May at $2.36 a mile, down 7 cents from the previous year. The industry is also pulling back on investments with orders for heavy duty trucks in May falling to one of the lowest levels in two years, per ACT Research.