US Administrative and Waste Management Services Sector NAICS 56

Dec 4, 2025 - Outlook for Office Demand Remains Cloudy

• The US office market’s recovery remains uneven amid high vacancy rates and declining property values in some markets, according to The Wall Street Journal. While districts like New York’s Park Avenue and San Francisco’s South of Market show signs of strength, most markets struggle with empty space due to structural shifts from remote and hybrid work. Companies are downsizing footprints, leaving landlords, lenders, and local governments under pressure as office-related tax collections fall. Some investors remain cautious, with office property sales far below pre-pandemic levels, though conversions to housing and limited new supply are tightening prime space in select areas. With AI-driven job cuts adding uncertainty, analysts warn the slump may not mirror past cycles, raising questions about the long-term viability of traditional office demand. Weak office occupancy can put downward pressure on demand for several types of building services, including janitorial, facilities support, office administration, security, and landscaping.
• Shrinking payrolls could mean weaker demand for employment services as the labor market shows signs of softness. In December, payroll firm ADP issued a report indicating that US private sector payrolls decreased by 32,000 in November 2025, as job creation in the second half of the year continued to flatten. The goods sector lost 19,000 jobs, as the addition of 8,000 natural resources and mining positions was insufficient to counterbalance the 9,000 losses in construction and the 18,000 fewer manufacturing jobs. The services sector saw a decrease of 13,000 jobs. While some services subsectors saw growth, including education and health (+33,000), leisure and hospitality (+13,000), and trade, transportation, and utilities (+1,000), they did not offset the losses in professional and business services (-26,000 jobs), information (-20,000), financial activities (-9,000), and other services (-4,000).

• Large waste firms continued their consolidation efforts in the third quarter of 2025, according to Waste Dive. GFL Environmental led U.S. solid waste M&A activity in Q3 with $235.77 million in deals, acquiring haulers in Illinois, Oklahoma, and Georgia. Republic Services followed with $122 million, targeting recycling, waste, and environmental services, including Green River Waste and Tri-County Disposal. Waste Connections spent $116.6 million, closing deals with Florida-based Great Waste and Florida Express Environmental. Casella Waste Systems invested $42.3 million, continuing its strategy of tuck-ins and larger deals, with more expected in Q4 and early 2026. WM had the lowest Q3 spend at $29 million, focusing on integrating Stericycle assets and completing smaller acquisitions, such as Countrywide Sanitation.
• Tech recruiters and job seekers face a paradox: despite a surge in computer-science graduates and widespread layoffs, companies can’t fill highly prized AI roles, according to The Wall Street Journal. Recruiters are inundated with applicants—some postings draw 2,000 resumes per week, yet few possess the machine-learning mastery to tune complex models. Fierce competition has driven base salaries for AI engineers and managers into the high six figures, with top applicants commanding up to $1 million and recruiters willing to wait months for a single hire. Meanwhile, candidates with strong but non-AI backgrounds struggle to break in, as firms cling to unicorn profiles and overlook transferable talent. This hyper-specialization prolongs vacant listings and pressures recruiting teams to refine sourcing strategies, prioritize portfolio vetting, and advocate on-the-job training to expand the narrow AI talent pipeline.