US Retail Sector NAICS 44, 45

Mar 19, 2026 - Retail Navigates Tariff Aftermath

• A recent Wall Street Journal report highlights growing legal and operational risks for US retailers tied to tariff policy. Costco faces a proposed nationwide class-action lawsuit seeking refunds for tariff-related price increases after tariffs were ruled unlawful. The Court of International Trade has ordered the government to refund approximately $166 billion in tariff revenue, though timing and distribution remain uncertain. At the same time, Costco is among hundreds of companies that have sued the US government to recover tariff payments as importers, adding another layer of litigation risk. According to the WSJ, retailers used a mix of price increases, supplier negotiations, and cost absorption, making consumer-level refunds difficult to calculate. With more than 2,000 related cases filed, the situation underscores how tariffs create pricing complexity, legal ambiguity, and potential financial liability across the US retail industry.
• The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects US retail sales will grow 4.4% in 2026 to $5.6 trillion, outpacing the 10-year average of 3.6%, reflecting continued consumer resilience despite economic uncertainty. According to NRF, household spending remains a “pillar of economic support,” driven largely by higher-income consumers, while spending remains uneven across income groups. The outlook is supported by income growth, stable labor markets, and unemployment below 4.5%, though job growth is expected to soften. Inflation is projected to remain elevated through midyear before easing, with a portion of retail growth representing real gains rather than price increases. NRF also notes modest near-term support from tax refunds, even as geopolitical tensions and trade policy risks persist. Overall, the forecast signals steady but uneven growth for the US retail industry in 2026.

• According to a report in Retail Dive, agentic AI shopping tools threaten to upend the US retail marketplace model by shifting transactions from human-driven platforms to fully autonomous systems. Large language models from companies like OpenAI, Google and Perplexity AI could enable end-to-end purchases without consumers visiting marketplaces such as Amazon or eBay, potentially reducing them to back-end fulfillment providers. In response, eBay updated its user agreement in February 2026 to block buy-for-me agents and LLM-driven bots without permission, while Amazon sued Perplexity in federal court to stop its Comet agent from accessing its retail store and customer data. Retailers warn of lost brand exposure, weakened customer lifetime value, and increased fraud risk if payment decisions move outside their control. As marketplaces pilot in-house AI tools, the industry faces a structural shift in traffic, data ownership and revenue control.
• The National Retail Federation’s CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reports continued momentum in U.S. retail, with February marking the fifth consecutive month of sales growth, rising 0.28% month over month and 6.24% year over year. Core retail sales increased 5.87% year over year, underscoring resilient consumer demand despite weather disruptions and global uncertainty. Growth was broad-based, led by apparel (+11.05% year over year), health and personal care (+9.33%), and general merchandise (+7.77%), reflecting strength across both discretionary and essential categories. Grocery sales rose 4.57%, while weaker segments included building and garden (-5.75%) and softer monthly performance in furniture and electronics. According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, wage gains and low unemployment continue to support spending, though retailers remain focused on value amid geopolitical and pricing pressures, highlighting a resilient but uneven retail landscape.