US Retail Sector NAICS 44, 45

Feb 19, 2026 - Retail Platforms Brace for AI-Driven Transactions

• According to a report in Retail Dive, agentic AI shopping tools threaten to upend the US retail marketplace model by shifting transactions from human-driven platforms to fully autonomous systems. Large language models from companies like OpenAI, Google and Perplexity AI could enable end-to-end purchases without consumers visiting marketplaces such as Amazon or eBay, potentially reducing them to back-end fulfillment providers. In response, eBay updated its user agreement in February 2026 to block buy-for-me agents and LLM-driven bots without permission, while Amazon sued Perplexity in federal court to stop its Comet agent from accessing its retail store and customer data. Retailers warn of lost brand exposure, weakened customer lifetime value, and increased fraud risk if payment decisions move outside their control. As marketplaces pilot in-house AI tools, the industry faces a structural shift in traffic, data ownership and revenue control.
• According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, the US retail industry showed continued momentum in January, marking the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Total retail sales (excluding autos and gas) rose 0.2% month over month and 5.72% year over year, while core retail sales increased 0.15% month over month and 5.51% year over year. These gains follow a 4.1% year-over-year increase during the record-breaking November–December holiday season. Sales rose year over year in eight of nine categories, led by clothing (+9.39%), digital products (+6.45%), and health and personal care (+5.98%). Grocery sales climbed 5.41%, while general merchandise rose 5.46% annually despite a slight monthly dip. Only building and garden supplies declined year over year (-6.26%). With retail contributing $5.3 trillion to GDP and supporting 55 million U.S. jobs, sustained spending growth signals continued resilience and economic importance for the sector entering 2026.

• Private label sales set another record in 2025, underscoring a continued shift in the US retail sector toward store-brand products, per a Retail Dive report. According to Circana data released by the Private Label Manufacturers Association, US shoppers spent $282.8 billion on private label goods in 2025, up 3.3% year over year and nearly three times the growth rate of national brands, which rose 1.2%. Volumes also increased 0.5%, adding about 430 million units to reach a record 68.7 billion units, while national brand unit sales declined 0.6%. Growth was broad-based, led by refrigerated products (6%), beverages (5%), and pet care (3.7%). Over the past five years, private label sales have climbed more than 30%, with dollar share rising from 19.1% to 21.3%. For retailers, the data highlights private label as a key driver of traffic, margins, and value positioning amid ongoing affordability concerns.
• The US retail industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is faster than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report projects sluggish but positive economic growth in the coming years. Factors that continue to limit consumer spending are lower consumer sentiment levels, higher interest levels, and elevated price levels. Real disposable income is being limited by a slow rise of employment and higher consumption prices, with a projected increase of real disposable income of 1.8% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The report noted that some shifts in consumer behavior persisted in 2025, including increased online shopping.