US Retail Sector NAICS 44, 45

May 13, 2025 - Spike in Retail Job Cuts

• According to a new report in Retail Dive, the retail sector had 64,319 job cuts in the first four months of 2025, a nearly 300% increase year over year, and was the second-leading industry in job cuts. The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report found retail job cuts were up almost 80% year over year in April 2025, reaching 7,235. According to Andrew Challenger, an SVP at the consulting firm, “Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending.” The US lost 603,000 jobs in total across all industries, the most since 2020, when over one million job cuts occurred. According to the report, nearly half of the cuts in the first four months were attributed to job eliminations by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
• According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo at major US container ports is expected to see its first year-over-year decline in more than a year and a half in May 2025, projected to decrease nearly 13%, due to tariff turmoil. Imports are expected to be down at least 20% year over year from June 2025 into the fall, and volume for the year could fall by more than 10%. A series of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration since February have come at a key time in the buying process for retailers, with many retailers pausing or canceling orders as a result. Jonathan Gold, NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said the effects of the tariffs on the supply chain are becoming apparent, noting, “From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes. In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.” Tracker data showed that US ports handled 2.1 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in March 2025, up 11.1% year over year, and a projected 2.2 million TEU in April 2025, expected to be up 9.1% year over year.

• The Trump administration has been making changes to the trade rule provision known as de minimis. An executive order by President Donald Trump ended the de minimis rule that had exempted lower value goods (valued at $800 or less) from duties and tariffs for goods from China, effective May 2025, according to the Wall Street Journal. After a 90-day trade truce was announced with China in mid-May, the US then lowered tariffs for low-value parcels from 120% to 54%, with a flat fee of $100 to remain. Trump had suspended the provision back in February as part of his order announcing a new 10% tariff on imports from China. However, the suspension was delayed following the backup of packages at ports. The rule became a factor as fast fashion e-commerce retailers like Shein based in China used the exemption to ship their goods to US buyers. According to government data, the number of shipments entering the US using the exemption in the last four years increased from 637 million per year to over 1 billion per year.
• The National Retail Federation (NRF) released its 2025 retail sales forecast, projecting an increase of approximately between 2.7% and 3.7%, reaching sales of between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion. The projected growth aligns with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6% and compares with the 2024 annual sales growth of 3.6%, which reached $5.29 trillion. Non-store and online sales (included in the total figure) are expected to grow at a higher rate of 7% to 9% year over year, to a range of $1.57 to $1.6 trillion, compared to $1.47 trillion in 2024. According to the forecast, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 supported by low unemployment and real wage gains. However, policy uncertainty, lingering inflation, and consumer anxiety over tariffs are weighing on consumer and business confidence. The NRF forecast excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail.