US Retail Sector NAICS 44, 45

Jan 29, 2026 - Retail Sales Climb Sharply in December

• US retail closed 2025 on strong footing as December sales surged, reinforcing a resilient consumer environment across the retail sector, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor. Total retail sales excluding autos and gas rose 1.26% month over month and 3.54% year over year in December, accelerating sharply from November. Core retail sales increased 1.6% month over month and 3.58% year over year. For the full holiday period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, sales grew 4.1%, landing near the top of NRF’s forecast range of 3.7%–4.2% and pushing total 2025 retail sales up 4.93% versus 2024. Gains were broad-based, with six of nine retail categories posting annual growth, reflecting sustained consumer spending momentum and supporting positive near-term conditions for the overall US retail sector.
• According to a report in Retail Dive, private label sales set another record in 2025, underscoring a continued shift in the US retail sector toward store-brand products. According to Circana data released by the Private Label Manufacturers Association, US shoppers spent $282.8 billion on private label goods in 2025, up 3.3% year over year and nearly three times the growth rate of national brands, which rose 1.2%. Volumes also increased 0.5%, adding about 430 million units to reach a record 68.7 billion units, while national brand unit sales declined 0.6%. Growth was broad-based, led by refrigerated products (6%), beverages (5%), and pet care (3.7%). Over the past five years, private label sales have climbed more than 30%, with dollar share rising from 19.1% to 21.3%. For retailers, the data highlights private label as a key driver of traffic, margins, and value positioning amid ongoing affordability concerns.

• The US retail industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is faster than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report projects sluggish but positive economic growth in the coming years. Factors that continue to limit consumer spending are lower consumer sentiment levels, higher interest levels, and elevated price levels. Real disposable income is being limited by a slow rise of employment and higher consumption prices, with a projected increase of real disposable income of 1.8% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The report noted that some shifts in consumer behavior persisted in 2025, including increased online shopping.
• US consumer confidence and sentiment in January signal a cautious spending climate that could restrain growth in the retail industry. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index plunged 9.7 points to 84.5, its lowest level since 2014, while the Expectations Index dropped to 65.1, well below the recession-warning threshold of 80, reflecting weaker views on future income and business conditions. Consumers also reported fewer jobs “plentiful” (23.9%, down from 27.5%), which may dampen discretionary retail spending. Although the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment climbed to 56.4, up 6.6% month over month—it remained 21.3% below January 2025 levels, indicating ongoing pressure on household budgets. Planned purchases of big-ticket items like furniture, appliances, and electronics declined, and spending intentions shifted toward essential services. For the US retail sector, these trends suggest heightened price sensitivity and slower demand for non-essential goods, reinforcing the need for value-focused pricing, promotions, and inventory strategies that align with more conservative consumer purchasing behaviors.