US Retail Sector
Industry Profile Report
Dive Deep into the industry with a 25+ page industry report (pdf format) including the following chapters
Industry Overview Current Conditions, Industry Structure, How Firms Operate, Industry Trends, Credit Underwriting & Risks, and Industry Forecast.
Call Preparation Call Prep Questions, Industry Terms, and Weblinks.
Financial Insights Working Capital, Capital Financing, Business Valuation, and Financial Benchmarks.
Industry Profile Excerpts
Industry Overview
The 1,041,555 retail establishments in the US purchase goods from manufacturers and distributors and sell a mix of those goods to consumers and businesses. Specialty retailers sell a particular type of merchandise, such as furniture or jewelry, broad line retailers sell a wide variety of merchandise and include department stores, sporting goods stores and gift and souvenir stores. Big box stores (Walmart, Target) and wholesale clubs (Costco, Sam’s) are competition for a wide range of retailers.
Competition from Online Retailers
The coronavirus pandemic shut down brick-and-mortar stores and accelerated the adoption of online shopping by consumers.
Battling Against Inventory Obsolescence
The retail sector is in a constant state of change, driven by trends, fads, seasonality and perishability.
Industry size & Structure
The retail sector is comprised of 1,041,555 establishments that employ 15.6 million workers and generate $6.9 trillion in annual revenue, according to government sources.
- The retail sector represents 6.4% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs 10.1% of the country's workers.
- The sector is concentrated at the top with the 20 largest retail firms representing 30% of revenue, but it is fragmented at the bottom.
- In addition to employer establishments, the retail sector has 2.1 million owner-operated establishments with no employees. Subsectors with the highest numbers of nonemployer establishments are direct selling establishments, which include door-to-door sales, home parties, fuel (heating oil and propane) delivery, and meat and meal plans (39%); ecommerce (8%); grocery products (8%); clothing stores (6%) and automobile dealers (5%). The owners of nonemployer establishments typically perform the work and may outsource support functions like marketing and accounting.
- The retail sector shed about 73,000 establishments in 2022, which equals about 7% of existing establishments, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In comparison, the sector added 70,000 new establishments in 2022.
- The retail sector is forecast to reduce its employment base by 0.3% overall in 2022-2032, which is lower than the national average of 5.3% for all jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Industry Forecast
US Retail Sector Industry Growth
Recent Developments
Dec 14, 2024 - Returns to Cost Retailers $890 Billion
- Shoppers are expected to return $890 billion worth of merchandise in 2024, accounting for approximately 16.9% of retailers’ annual sales, according to a report in Retail Dive by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and UPS’s Happy Returns subsidiary. In 2023, retailers accepted $743 billion in returns and lost $101 billion in returns fraud, per the NRF. More than three-quarters of shoppers surveyed factor free returns into their shopping decisions, and over two-thirds of shoppers say a negative returns experience at a retail store would dissuade them from doing business with them in the future, per the report. About 51% of Gen Z shoppers said they had purchased multiple items with the intent to return some of them, a practice known as bracketing. According to a separate survey by NRF, retailers are taking measures to address the higher-than-expected volume of returns during the winter holidays by seeking additional support from third-party logistics providers (40%) and hiring additional seasonal staff to specifically handle returns (34%).
- Consumer confidence levels increased in November 2024, improving by 2.1 points from the previous month, according to The Conference Board. The Consumer Confidence Index was 111.7 in November 2024 from 109.6 in October 2024. Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, noted that those remaining most confident on a six-month moving average basis confidence were those aged under 35 and those in the income category of over $100,000. Per Peterson, “Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years.” Purchasing plans for homes stalled while plans to buy new cars rose slightly in November 2024 on a six-month average basis.
- A new study by the National Retail Federation (NRF) of the estimated impact of president-elect Donald Trump’s tariff proposals shows the tariffs could increase costs of major consumer product categories including apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods. The study looked at the impact of Trump’s proposed universal 10-20% tariff on imports from all countries and an additional tax on imports from China. Per the study, consumers would pay $13.9 billion to $24 billion more for apparel, $8.8 billion to $14.2 billion more for toys, $8.5 billion to $13.1 more for furniture, and $6.4 billion to $10.9 billion more for household appliances with the proposed tariffs in place. The study showed the tariffs would have a “significant and detrimental impact” on the costs of a wide range of consumer products, in particular those products supplied primarily by China. US retailers would be unable to absorb the increased costs and would need to raise prices “higher than many consumers would be willing or able to pay.” According to Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president of supply chain and customs policy, “Retailers rely heavily on imported products and manufacturing components so that they can offer their customers a variety of products at affordable prices. A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country or the exporter. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.”
- The US retail industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.1% between 2024 and 2028, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is comparable to the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report noted that consumer confidence is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the retail and wholesale industries. Factors that continue to limit consumer spending are lower consumer sentiment levels, higher interest levels, and elevated price levels. On a positive note, inflation is subsiding, which supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 1.9% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025. Retailers have seen internet sales increasingly grow in share since the pandemic, growing from 12.8% of total sales in February 2020 to 17.9% in April 2024.
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