US Retail Sector NAICS 44, 45

Oct 16, 2025 - Retailers Scale Back Holiday Hiring

• The retail sector's seasonal hiring is projected to fall below 500,000 positions in Q4 2025, marking the lowest level since 2009, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas in Retail Dive. The decline follows a 4% year-over-year decline in 2024, when 543,100 jobs were added. Economic pressures, including inflation, tariffs, and rising operational costs, are prompting retailers to rely more on automation and existing staff rather than expanding seasonal headcount. Target, for example, is prioritizing increased hours for current employees over new hires. While some retailers may ramp up hiring if sales outperform expectations, the muted pace of announcements suggests conservative planning. The impact of reduced seasonal hiring may result in constrained customer service capacity during peak periods and signal cautious sales expectations. Strategic staffing and operational agility will be key for retailers to navigate holiday demand amid economic uncertainty.
• US retailers have largely frontloaded holiday inventory to avoid rising tariffs, leading to a projected drop in monthly imports below 2 million TEU through year-end, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. Despite new 25% tariffs on furniture and cabinetry, most retailers remain well-stocked and are working to shield consumers from price hikes. The early peak season and tariff uncertainty have driven import volumes down, with October through December forecast to decline over 12–19% year over year. While the first half of 2025 saw modest growth, full-year imports are expected to fall 2.9% from 2024. Retailers brace for inflationary impacts as inventories deplete.

• Retailers face a cautious consumer environment as recent confidence and sentiment indexes signal weakened demand and inflation concerns. In September 2025, the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board fell to 94.2, with job optimism down (only 26.9% said jobs were “plentiful”) and inflation expectations high. Buying intentions dropped for cars and travel, while interest in homes and smartphones rose. Confidence declined across most age and income groups, especially among households earning $25,000–$35,000 and over $200,000. The consumer sentiment index held at 55.0 in October 2025 from the previous month, and was down 22% year-over-year, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Overall, the data signals cautious consumer sentiment, which could dampen retail spending heading into the holiday season.
• According to a new report in Retail Dive, the retail sector had 80,487 job cuts in the first seven months of 2025, a nearly 250% increase year over year. The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report cites tariffs, inflation, and broader economic uncertainty as driving the workplace contraction, with the potential for further losses if consumer spending declines. According to the report, many companies in the retail sector have not released hiring plans for the rest of the year, noteworthy considering the upcoming holiday season. The US lost over 806,000 jobs in total across all industries, the most since 2020, when over one million job cuts occurred. According to the report, more than a third of the cuts in the first seven months were attributed to job eliminations by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).