US Retail Sector
Industry Profile Report
Dive Deep into the industry with a 25+ page industry report (pdf format) including the following chapters
Industry Overview Current Conditions, Industry Structure, How Firms Operate, Industry Trends, Credit Underwriting & Risks, and Industry Forecast.
Call Preparation Call Prep Questions, Industry Terms, and Weblinks.
Financial Insights Working Capital, Capital Financing, Business Valuation, and Financial Benchmarks.
Industry Profile Excerpts
Industry Overview
The 1,041,555 retail establishments in the US purchase goods from manufacturers and distributors and sell a mix of those goods to consumers and businesses. Specialty retailers sell a particular type of merchandise, such as furniture or jewelry, broad line retailers sell a wide variety of merchandise and include department stores, sporting goods stores and gift and souvenir stores. Big box stores (Walmart, Target) and wholesale clubs (Costco, Sam’s) are competition for a wide range of retailers.
Competition from Online Retailers
The coronavirus pandemic shut down brick-and-mortar stores and accelerated the adoption of online shopping by consumers.
Battling Against Inventory Obsolescence
The retail sector is in a constant state of change, driven by trends, fads, seasonality and perishability.
Industry size & Structure
The retail sector is comprised of 1,041,555 establishments that employ 15.6 million workers and generate $6.9 trillion in annual revenue, according to government sources.
- The retail sector represents 6.4% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs 10.1% of the country's workers.
- The sector is concentrated at the top with the 20 largest retail firms representing 30% of revenue, but it is fragmented at the bottom.
- In addition to employer establishments, the retail sector has 2.1 million owner-operated establishments with no employees. Subsectors with the highest numbers of nonemployer establishments are direct selling establishments, which include door-to-door sales, home parties, fuel (heating oil and propane) delivery, and meat and meal plans (39%); ecommerce (8%); grocery products (8%); clothing stores (6%) and automobile dealers (5%). The owners of nonemployer establishments typically perform the work and may outsource support functions like marketing and accounting.
- The retail sector shed about 73,000 establishments in 2022, which equals about 7% of existing establishments, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In comparison, the sector added 70,000 new establishments in 2022.
- The retail sector is forecast to reduce its employment base by 0.3% overall in 2022-2032, which is lower than the national average of 5.3% for all jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Industry Forecast
US Retail Sector Industry Growth
Recent Developments
Apr 15, 2025 - NRF Forecast Expects Growth
- The National Retail Federation (NRF) released its 2025 retail sales forecast, projecting an increase of approximately between 2.7% and 3.7%, reaching sales of between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion. The projected growth aligns with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6% and compares with the 2024 annual sales growth of 3.6%, which reached $5.29 trillion. Non-store and online sales (included in the total figure) are expected to grow at a higher rate of 7% to 9% year over year, to a range of $1.57 to $1.6 trillion, compared to $1.47 trillion in 2024. According to the forecast, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 supported by low unemployment and real wage gains. However, policy uncertainty, lingering inflation, and consumer anxiety over tariffs are weighing on consumer and business confidence. The NRF forecast excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail.
- An executive order by President Donald Trump will end a trade rule provision known as de minimis that had exempted lower value goods (valued at $800 or less) from duties and tariffs for goods from China, effective May 2, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump had suspended the provision back in February as part of his order announcing a new 10% tariff on imports from China. However, the suspension was delayed following the backup of packages at ports. The rule has become a factor as fast fashion e-commerce retailers like Shein based in China have used the exemption to ship their goods to US buyers. According to government data, the number of shipments entering the US using the exemption in the last four years increased from 637 million per year to over 1 billion per year.
- According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo at major US container ports is expected to drop dramatically at the beginning of May and fall at least 20% in the second half of 2025, year over year, due to tariff turmoil. Following tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico set earlier this year, the Trump administration has set a minimum tariff of 10% on all US trading partners and reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations. Trump has since announced additional tariffs on China, bringing the rate on imports of Chinese goods to an estimated 145%. Jonathan Gold, NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said retailers are expected to pull back on imports and rely on built-up inventories for the near future, noting, “Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs.” Tracker data showed that US ports handled 2.1 million 20-foot equivalent units in March 2025, which was up 11.1% year over year.
- Retailers may want to prepare for potential changes in shopping habits created by declining consumer confidence levels; the Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.2 points to 92.9 in March 2025 month over month, according to the Conference Board. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist of Global Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that the segment driving March’s decline was consumers over 55 years old, and the decline spanned all income groups with the exception being households earning over $125,000. Per Guichard, “Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022.” Purchasing plans for homes and new cars declined while big-ticket purchases rose on a six-month moving average basis, which may reflect plans to purchase certain items before impending tariffs lead to price increases.
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