US Retail Sector NAICS 44, 45

Apr 15, 2025 - NRF Forecast Expects Growth

• The National Retail Federation (NRF) released its 2025 retail sales forecast, projecting an increase of approximately between 2.7% and 3.7%, reaching sales of between $5.42 trillion and $5.48 trillion. The projected growth aligns with the 10-year pre-pandemic average annual sales growth of 3.6% and compares with the 2024 annual sales growth of 3.6%, which reached $5.29 trillion. Non-store and online sales (included in the total figure) are expected to grow at a higher rate of 7% to 9% year over year, to a range of $1.57 to $1.6 trillion, compared to $1.47 trillion in 2024. According to the forecast, the economy has shown continued momentum so far in 2025 supported by low unemployment and real wage gains. However, policy uncertainty, lingering inflation, and consumer anxiety over tariffs are weighing on consumer and business confidence. The NRF forecast excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants to focus on core retail.
• An executive order by President Donald Trump will end a trade rule provision known as de minimis that had exempted lower value goods (valued at $800 or less) from duties and tariffs for goods from China, effective May 2, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump had suspended the provision back in February as part of his order announcing a new 10% tariff on imports from China. However, the suspension was delayed following the backup of packages at ports. The rule has become a factor as fast fashion e-commerce retailers like Shein based in China have used the exemption to ship their goods to US buyers. According to government data, the number of shipments entering the US using the exemption in the last four years increased from 637 million per year to over 1 billion per year.

• According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo at major US container ports is expected to drop dramatically at the beginning of May and fall at least 20% in the second half of 2025, year over year, due to tariff turmoil. Following tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico set earlier this year, the Trump administration has set a minimum tariff of 10% on all US trading partners and reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations. Trump has since announced additional tariffs on China, bringing the rate on imports of Chinese goods to an estimated 145%. Jonathan Gold, NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said retailers are expected to pull back on imports and rely on built-up inventories for the near future, noting, “Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs.” Tracker data showed that US ports handled 2.1 million 20-foot equivalent units in March 2025, which was up 11.1% year over year.
• Retailers may want to prepare for potential changes in shopping habits created by declining consumer confidence levels; the Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.2 points to 92.9 in March 2025 month over month, according to the Conference Board. Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist of Global Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that the segment driving March’s decline was consumers over 55 years old, and the decline spanned all income groups with the exception being households earning over $125,000. Per Guichard, “Consumer confidence declined for a fourth consecutive month in March, falling below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022.” Purchasing plans for homes and new cars declined while big-ticket purchases rose on a six-month moving average basis, which may reflect plans to purchase certain items before impending tariffs lead to price increases.