US Transportation and Warehousing Sector NAICS 48

Jan 13, 2026 - Warehouse Vacancies Climb in 2025

• Even with US industrial vacancies climbing to 7.6% in Q3 of 2025, above the 7.1% pre-pandemic norm according to Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), demand for modern warehousing is still rising. The increase reflects a wave of pandemic-era projects that came online last year, pushing vacancies up from 6.8% a year earlier. Activity remains strong, though, with JLL reporting that leasing space reached 146.2 million square feet in the third quarter, the highest level since early 2024, while the development pipeline expanded to 246.8 million square feet after shrinking for 11 straight quarters. Third-party logistics providers are driving demand for larger, tech-heavy facilities, with more than 41% of its addressable users now relying daily on proprietary AI tools. Industry analysts also expect data centers to fuel a major construction cycle over the next five years, intensifying competition for land and power with logistics warehouses.
• US airlines enter 2026 with deepening divides between premium and budget travel, as carriers intensify efforts to attract higher-spending customers while managing weaker demand at the budget end. Airlines are expanding airport lounges, first-class cabins, adding extra-legroom seating, and betting that wealthier travelers will remain resilient even if the economy softens. Delta and United continue to capture nearly all US airline profits, while lower-cost carriers face greater exposure to price-sensitive consumers. Airfares are expected to remain largely flat compared with 2025, according to American Express Global Business Travel. Struggling Spirit Airlines is in its second bankruptcy in under a year, with analysts doubting its survival as a standalone carrier. Meanwhile, Southwest is overhauling its long-standing model with assigned seating and bag fees, American is investing heavily in lounges, new aircraft and Wi-Fi, and airlines broadly are tightening loyalty benefits, reinforcing what executives describe as a “K-shaped” airline economy.

• US West Coast container gateways are expected to remain congestion-free in early 2026 as soft deep-sea import volumes persist, according to S&P Global. Tariff-related demand swings left West Coast imports up just 0.1% through November of last year, with cargo frontloading earlier in 2025 giving way to double-digit declines in the fall. Despite volatility, West Coast ports retained 59% of US container imports from Asia through November, unchanged year over year. Pacific deep sea carriers benefited from shorter transit times than East Coast routes, helping preserve market share. Ports handled sharp peaks - including a record 1.2 million TEUs of imports in July - without congestion due to improved forecasting and coordination across carriers, terminals, truckers, and railroads. Looking ahead, inflation, weaker consumer confidence, rising unemployment, and tariff uncertainty are expected to suppress demand into mid-2026, limiting near-term growth for deep sea shipping services on the West Coast.
• The less-than-truckload (LTL) freight market disappointed in 2025, with volumes remaining soft and growth more muted than expected as broader trucking demand weakened from tariffs after a prolonged freight downturn. The 2023 collapse of Yellow Corp. had briefly insulated other LTL carriers, but in 2025 even major players felt the slowdown, citing weak industrial demand, high interest rates and tariff uncertainty. Pricing discipline largely held, helping carriers avoid destructive rate competition. A notable positive was the smooth rollout of National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) updates in July, with early customer education and updated tools easing the transition. Some macro indicators offer cautious optimism, including slightly lower interest rates and steady retail sales, but executives say clear signals of a near-term rebound are lacking. Overall, carriers are operating cautiously in a shallower pool of activity, awaiting clearer economic improvements to boost shipment levels.