US Transportation and Warehousing Sector NAICS 48

Mar 6, 2026 - Supreme Court Tariff Decision Shakes Up Shipping Again

• The Supreme Court's invalidation of Trump’s global tariffs has delivered a mixed and incomplete result for American businesses: while the ruling theoretically opened the door to over $130 billion in refunds (with more than 2,200 companies already filing lawsuits to claim them) the practical benefit has been undermined by the administration's swift imposition of new tariffs and ongoing legal challenges. Rather than restoring stability, the ruling has added another layer of uncertainty, leaving businesses unsure whether refunds will materialize, what tariff rates will apply to future shipments, and how long any current rate will last. For many importers, the Supreme Court decision has been less a resolution than a reset button that restarted the same cycle of unpredictability that has already cost some companies millions of dollars.
• The White House’s new Maritime Action Plan lays out proposals to revive US shipbuilding, including new fees on cargo arriving on foreign-built vessels and incentives meant to spur private investment, but offers few details on timing and would require Congress to act on most measures. The plan is intended to signal federal commitment to rebuilding domestic shipyards after decades of decline that have left the US producing less than 1% of the world’s commercial ships. It calls for tools such as maritime prosperity zones and a Maritime Security Trust Fund to help finance new construction and related programs, while supporters in Congress argue it could build momentum for the SHIPS for America Act, which would fund shipbuilding and expand the US-flagged fleet. Industry observers warned, however, that the plan’s impact will depend on follow-through in future budgets and whether lawmakers move quickly enough to turn the proposals into law.

• The average US warehouse vacancy rate held around 7.1% through late 2025, after rising earlier in the year as supply continued to outpace demand, according to real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) - a sign the market may be leveling off rather than worsening. It remains one of the highest vacancy levels in over a decade as years of heavy construction finally caught up with the industry. Early in 2025, retailers, manufacturers, and wholesalers stockpiled inventory ahead of tariff-related costs, then pulled back on new overseas orders and leasing decisions. The trend extends a multi-year downturn following the pandemic boom, when e-commerce drove rapid expansion, though recent quarters have shown improving absorption and more leasing of newer, automation-ready facilities, per C&W. At the same time, the roughly 280 million square feet of new US industrial space delivered in 2025 helped ease the supply glut.
• US airlines enter 2026 with deepening divides between premium and budget travel, as carriers intensify efforts to attract higher-spending customers while managing weaker demand at the budget end. Airlines are expanding airport lounges, first-class cabins, adding extra-legroom seating, and betting that wealthier travelers will remain resilient even if the economy softens. Delta and United continue to capture nearly all US airline profits, while lower-cost carriers face greater exposure to price-sensitive consumers. Airfares are expected to remain largely flat compared with 2025, according to American Express Global Business Travel. Struggling Spirit Airlines is in its second bankruptcy in under a year, with analysts doubting its survival as a standalone carrier. Meanwhile, Southwest is overhauling its long-standing model with assigned seating and bag fees, American is investing heavily in lounges, new aircraft and Wi-Fi, and airlines broadly are tightening loyalty benefits, reinforcing what executives describe as a “K-shaped” airline economy.