US Transportation and Warehousing Sector NAICS 48

Nov 12, 2025 - Trucking Had A Rough Q3

• The trucking market slid back in Q3 as the brief spring rebound reversed, leaving carriers squeezed by weak volumes and shifting capacity, according to US Bank data. National shipment volumes fell 10.7% year-over-year, and the US Bank Shipments Index dropped 2.9% sequentially, signaling the market’s renewed contraction. Major carriers showed mixed but troubling results: Old Dominion’s LTL tonnage per day fell about 9%, TFI International’s tonnage declined 7.4%, and FedEx Freight saw average daily freight pounds slide roughly 12%. XPO offset a 6.1% tonnage drop with a 5.7% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight, but overall demand remains soft. Shipper spend rose 2% sequentially as fleets exit capacity and fuel surcharges bite. With manufacturing contracting, truckload and LTL volumes look likely to stay under pressure into 2025 unless demand rebounds.
• Public transit ridership in the US is rebounding slowly but remains below pre-pandemic levels (with overall use at about 85% of 2019 volumes) according to the American Public Transit Association. The recovery varies by region, but nationally, shifting work patterns and reduced commuter demand have limited progress. Many agencies are still coping with budget gaps and deferred maintenance, forcing them to prioritize efficiency over expansion. This slow rebound has ripple effects for rail equipment wholesalers and suppliers, who depend on sustained transit investment to drive orders for rolling stock, signaling systems, and maintenance parts. While federal infrastructure funding offers some support, procurement cycles remain uncertain as agencies delay capital spending until ridership and fare revenue stabilize. As a result, the market outlook for rail equipment suppliers remains mixed - stronger than during the pandemic but not yet buoyed by a full return to pre-2020 transit demand.

• Amazon is accelerating automation across its warehouse network, aiming to replace or avoid hiring more than 500,000 US workers through robotics over the next few years, according to internal documents viewed by The New York Times. Amazon’s goal is to automate up to 75% of its operations, potentially eliminating the need for 160,000 new hires by 2027 and saving about 30 cents per item processed. The company’s US workforce has tripled since 2018 to nearly 1.2 million, but executives hope automation will allow future growth in sales - projected to double by 2033 - without proportional staffing increases. The shift could reshape the warehousing industry, making roles more technical but far fewer. Experts warn Amazon’s strategy could transform it from a job creator into a job reducer, influencing other large employers like Walmart and UPS. Amazon maintains that automation will ultimately spur new types of employment and community investment.
• The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) push to hire thousands of new air traffic controllers amid a shortage has proved fruitful in terms of promising candidates, but the agency is having trouble finding enough qualified instructors to train them. After launching a hiring blitz in mid-March, the FAA has referred 8,300 candidates for testing, while increasing the agency’s training academy roster in Oklahoma City by 30% to 550 students as of July. However, the agency’s goal of hiring 8,900 new controllers by 2028 is slow going because instructors must be previous certified controllers themselves with on-the-job airport experience. Instructors have historically worked days that can last up to twelve hours with low pay, a tough sell for many qualified instructors. It takes four years to be certified as a controller, and a recent FAA workforce plan revealed the current pace will only yield 1,000 instructors by the deadline.