US Transportation and Warehousing Sector NAICS 48

Jun 12, 2026 - Trucking Freight Rates Climbing After Four Rough Years

• After nearly four years of depressed freight rates, the trucking industry is showing clear signs of recovery as reduced truck capacity pushes prices higher. Carriers that survived a prolonged downturn - caused by excess trucking capacity following the pandemic boom, weak freight demand, and rising operating costs - are now benefiting from sharply higher rates, with dry-van spot rates up more than 50% year over year. Industry leaders say the rebound is being driven mainly by a shortage of available trucks after hundreds of thousands of carriers exited the market, a trend accelerated by stricter regulations affecting immigrant drivers. Major companies such as Estes Express, NFI, J.B. Hunt, and Old Dominion report improving pricing and demand, particularly from manufacturing and data-center construction. While consumer demand remains relatively weak and higher interest rates could threaten future growth, executives broadly believe the trucking market has reached a healthier balance between supply and demand.
• The Iran war has increased fuel costs and volatility across the entire transportation and logistics industry, where diesel is a critical operating expense for trucking fleets, railroads, and shipping companies. Per the Financial Times, US diesel prices recently climbed to about $5.66 per gallon, helping push wholesale inflation to 6%, the highest level since 2022. Diesel prices have increased roughly 35-41% since the conflict escalated, driven largely by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil normally flows. For trucking companies, every 50-cent increase in diesel can add approximately $0.08-$0.10 per mile in operating costs, while rail and shipping operators are also facing higher fuel and transportation expenses. Larger logistics providers are mitigating some of the impact through fuel surcharges, route optimization, and efficiency measures, but rising transportation costs are increasingly flowing through the supply chain to retailers, manufacturers, and consumers.

• Small and midsize businesses (SMBs) are abandoning a “wait-and-see” approach and actively overhauling supply chains as tariff uncertainty continues, according to a Netstock survey. About 97% of SMBs are now using at least one mitigation strategy, with 35% having changed suppliers and nearly half sourcing from multiple regions to reduce risk - though 74% still cite China as most impacted. At the same time, nearly three-quarters have extended inventory planning horizons to manage cost swings and delays. Pricing pressure is also mounting, with 82% of firms raising prices after exhausting their ability to absorb costs. To cope, companies are rapidly increasing use of analytics and AI tools. These shifts are expected to keep freight markets volatile, with more fragmented shipping networks and potential demand slowdowns as higher prices ripple through the economy.
• Truck driver employment in the US hit an 8-year low in March 2026, with the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting 1.4 million jobs - down 27,300 from 2025 and 124,500 below the October 2022 peak. The last three months have all fallen below 2017 levels, and the true picture is likely worse since self-employed owner-operators aren't counted in the BLS data and have been squeezed by years of low freight rates and spiking diesel prices. Tightening regulations and rising fuel costs from Trump’s Iran adventure are pressuring smaller carriers, making it difficult to add or maintain headcount even as spot rates improve. Despite the weak labor data, a strong new tractor order book suggests some carriers believe the current market tightness will persist - though analysts note it remains difficult to translate rising rates into actual hiring after years of thin margins.