US Transportation and Warehousing Sector NAICS 48

Dec 18, 2025 - LTL Market Disappointed in 2025

• The less-than-truckload (LTL) freight market disappointed in 2025, with volumes remaining soft and growth more muted than expected as broader trucking demand weakened from tariffs after a prolonged freight downturn. The 2023 collapse of Yellow Corp. had briefly insulated other LTL carriers, but in 2025 even major players felt the slowdown, citing weak industrial demand, high interest rates and tariff uncertainty. Pricing discipline largely held, helping carriers avoid destructive rate competition. A notable positive was the smooth rollout of National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) updates in July, with early customer education and updated tools easing the transition. Some macro indicators offer cautious optimism, including slightly lower interest rates and steady retail sales, but executives say clear signals of a near-term rebound are lacking. Overall, carriers are operating cautiously in a shallower pool of activity, awaiting clearer economic improvements to boost shipment levels.
• Container shipping faces worsening overcapacity as new vessel deliveries slow in 2026. About 1.48 million TEUs are scheduled for delivery next year, a 17.7% drop from 2025, according to Sea-web. Global container volumes are expected to rise only 2.5%-3.5% in 2026, down from 4.5%-5.5% growth in 2025, according to shipowner association Bimco. The 1.8 million TEUs delivered this year are already straining absorption as global demand growth slowed to 2.1% by year’s end, per Container Trades Statistics, the weakest pace since February. Larger capacity waves loom, with 2.3 million TEUs due in 2027 and 3.4 million TEUs in 2028. Congestion, diversions, and slow steaming offer limited relief. With only 0.8% of the fleet idled as of mid-November and scrapping near historic lows, carriers are increasingly likely to idle and scrap ships as rates soften and costs rise.

• America’s inland‑waterways infrastructure received a C- grade in the 2025 American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Report Card, an improvement from the D+ it earned in 2021. The network of 12,000 miles of inland navigation channels and 11,000 miles of intracoastal waterways plays a critical role in moving roughly $158 billion of goods each year. Despite its importance, the system faces significant challenges. Many locks and dams are well past their lifespan, with 80% of structures aging beyond their expected service periods, creating maintenance and reliability issues. The ASCE says repair and upgrade backlogs have reached $7.5 billion, while droughts and reduced water levels further strain operations. Although federal funding has increased in recent years, the pace of project delivery remains slow, often taking decades instead of years. Cost overruns and insufficient ongoing maintenance continue to limit the inland system’s efficiency, posing risks to commercial shipping.
• The trucking market slid back in Q3 as the brief spring rebound reversed, leaving carriers squeezed by weak volumes and shifting capacity, according to US Bank data. National shipment volumes fell 10.7% year-over-year, and the US Bank Shipments Index dropped 2.9% sequentially, signaling the market’s renewed contraction. Major carriers showed mixed but troubling results: Old Dominion’s LTL tonnage per day fell about 9%, TFI International’s tonnage declined 7.4%, and FedEx Freight saw average daily freight pounds slide roughly 12%. XPO offset a 6.1% tonnage drop with a 5.7% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight, but overall demand remains soft. Shipper spend rose 2% sequentially as fleets exit capacity and fuel surcharges bite. With manufacturing contracting, truckload and LTL volumes look likely to stay under pressure into 2025 unless demand rebounds.