US Transportation and Warehousing Sector NAICS 48

Jul 7, 2026 - Supply Chain Disruptions Are The New Normal

• American companies are increasingly treating supply chain disruption as a permanent business reality rather than a temporary problem, prompting investments in more flexible logistics strategies. According to the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals' 2025 State of Logistics Report, US logistics costs fell 1% to $2.4 trillion in 2025, or 7.8% of gross domestic product, largely because ocean shipping rates declined as new vessel capacity entered the market. That relief is proving short-lived, however. Trucking rates, warehousing costs, inventory expenses, and ocean freight prices have climbed again in 2026 amid tariff uncertainty, conflict in the Middle East, and higher fuel costs. As a result, companies are diversifying ports, blending long-term and spot shipping contracts, and placing greater emphasis on contingency planning, supply chain visibility, and faster decision-making to improve resilience rather than simply minimize costs.
• Rising trucking rates, higher diesel prices, and tighter truck capacity are driving more US retailers and manufacturers to shift freight from highways back to rail. According to the Association of American Railroads, North American intermodal traffic rose 6% year over year in May, the strongest increase since March 2025, as shippers sought lower transportation costs. While rail shipments take longer and require truck transfers for final delivery, intermodal service can reduce shipping costs by 10% to 20%, according to Redwood Logistics, and remains far cheaper than long-haul trucking. Investments by railroads and logistics providers have also improved reliability and transit times, making intermodal a more attractive long-term option rather than just a temporary cost-saving measure. The shift is especially pronounced on US-Mexico freight lanes, where immigration enforcement has tightened truck capacity and further increased demand for rail alternatives.

• After nearly four years of depressed freight rates, the trucking industry is showing clear signs of recovery as reduced truck capacity pushes prices higher. Carriers that survived a prolonged downturn - caused by excess trucking capacity following the pandemic boom, weak freight demand, and rising operating costs - are now benefiting from sharply higher rates, with dry-van spot rates up more than 50% year over year. Industry leaders say the rebound is being driven mainly by a shortage of available trucks after hundreds of thousands of carriers exited the market, a trend accelerated by stricter regulations affecting immigrant drivers. Major companies such as Estes Express, NFI, J.B. Hunt, and Old Dominion report improving pricing and demand, particularly from manufacturing and data-center construction. While consumer demand remains relatively weak and higher interest rates could threaten future growth, executives broadly believe the trucking market has reached a healthier balance between supply and demand.
• The Iran war has increased fuel costs and volatility across the entire transportation and logistics industry, where diesel is a critical operating expense for trucking fleets, railroads, and shipping companies. Per the Financial Times, US diesel prices recently climbed to about $5.66 per gallon, helping push wholesale inflation to 6%, the highest level since 2022. Diesel prices have increased roughly 35-41% since the conflict escalated, driven largely by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil normally flows. For trucking companies, every 50-cent increase in diesel can add approximately $0.08-$0.10 per mile in operating costs, while rail and shipping operators are also facing higher fuel and transportation expenses. Larger logistics providers are mitigating some of the impact through fuel surcharges, route optimization, and efficiency measures, but rising transportation costs are increasingly flowing through the supply chain to retailers, manufacturers, and consumers.