US Wholesale Sector NAICS 42

Nov 26, 2025 - Cargo Slowdown Expected in 2026: Tracker

• According to the Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, US ports handled 2.1 million TEU in September 2025, down 9.3% year over year, with October projected at 1.9 million TEU, an 11.5% decline. A sharper drop is expected in Q1 2026, with January forecast at 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1%. The US wholesale sector faces mounting challenges as import volumes soften under tariff pressure. The declines signal tighter inventory pipelines, longer lead times, and higher costs as tariffs complicate sourcing strategies. The unpredictable tariff policy has made planning difficult, forcing distributors to hedge with diversified suppliers or absorb margin pressure. Overall, wholesalers must adapt logistics and pricing models to navigate reduced cargo flows and ongoing trade uncertainty. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the on-again, off-again tariff policy in 2025 has made planning difficult for both importers and ocean carriers. The usual end-of-the-year slowdown is expected in November and December.
• The Wholesale Trade Industry is one of 11 industries reporting growth in October's Services ISM Report on Business. Executives in the Wholesale Trade industry reported increases in business activity, new orders, prices paid for materials and services, and order backlogs, along with slower deliveries and decreases in employment, new export orders, and imports in October. Additional industries reporting growth during the period were Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services. Six industries reported contraction during the period, including Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Construction; and Other Services. Overall, economic activity in the services sector expanded in October, with the Services PMI registering 52.4%.

• Consumer sentiment weakened notably in late 2025, signaling immediate pressure on US wholesale demand. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 6.2% month-over-month in preliminary November data to 50.3, nearly 30% lower year-over-year, while both current conditions and expectations indices registered sharp declines. Rising year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.7% and elevated uncertainty suggest households may restrain discretionary purchases, directly affecting wholesale channels reliant on consumer-facing sectors. Similarly, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 94.6 in October, with stronger present conditions offset by weaker short-term outlooks. Inflation expectations climbed to 5.9%, and more than half of consumers anticipate higher interest rates, pointing to tighter credit conditions. For wholesalers, the trends imply slower inventory turnover, cautious restocking, and potential margin compression as downstream buyers adjust orders to match softer consumer demand. Vigilance in pricing, supply chain management, and liquidity planning will be critical to sustaining resilience.
• A Zebra Technologies and Oxford Economics study reveals that automation and AI-enhanced workflows have led to productivity increases of up to 21% in transportation and logistics, 19% in manufacturing, and a 21% improvement in customer satisfaction in retail. The research highlights how improvements such as integrating automation, data, and frontline expertise boost efficiency, visibility, and financial performance. For top global firms, the improvements could translate into an average of $3 billion in higher revenue and an average of $120 million in added profit.