US Wholesale Sector NAICS 42

Oct 27, 2025 - Growth in Wholesale Industry

• The Wholesale Trade Industry is one of 10 industries reporting growth in September’s Services ISM Report on Business. Executives in the Wholesale Trade industry reported an increase in new orders, prices paid for materials and services, and inventories, along with faster supply deliveries, and a decrease in employment. Additional industries reporting growth during the period were Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Information; Public Administration; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Utilities. Seven industries reporting contraction during the period were Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing. Overall, economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, with the Services PMI registering 50%.
• Consumers are signaling sustained economic unease, an outlook that may pressure the US wholesale sector as retailers tighten inventory and scale back orders in response to weakened confidence and sentiment indexes. In September 2025, the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board fell to 94.2, with job optimism down and inflation expectations high. Buying intentions dropped for cars and travel, while interest in homes and smartphones rose. Confidence declined across most age and income groups, especially among households earning $25,000–$35,000 and over $200,000. The consumer sentiment index held at 55 in October 2025 from the previous month, and was down 22% year-over-year, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Overall, the data signals cautious consumer sentiment, which could dampen spending heading into the holiday season.

• A Zebra Technologies and Oxford Economics study reveals that automation and AI-enhanced workflows have led to productivity increases of up to 21% in transportation and logistics, 19% in manufacturing, and a 21% improvement in customer satisfaction in retail. The research highlights how improvements such as integrating automation, data, and frontline expertise boost efficiency, visibility, and financial performance. For top global firms, the improvements could translate into an average of $3 billion in higher revenue and an average of $120 million in added profit.
• US wholesalers should prepare for shifting demand dynamics as retailers frontload holiday inventory to mitigate rising tariffs, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. With new 25% tariffs on furniture and cabinetry in effect, most retailers have stocked up early, resulting in a projected decline in monthly imports below 2 million TEU through year-end. Import volumes for October to December are expected to drop 12–19% year over year, with full-year imports forecasted to fall 2.9% from 2024. While early inventory buildup has temporarily stabilized supply, wholesalers may face reduced order volumes and delayed replenishment cycles as retailers navigate inflationary pressures and tariff uncertainty. Strategic planning and flexible fulfillment models will be critical for wholesalers to support retail partners through fluctuating demand and evolving cost structures.