US Wholesale Sector NAICS 42

Dec 28, 2025 - Faster Growth Forecast

• The US wholesale industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.59% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is faster than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report noted that retail and wholesale trade sectors are driven by consumer spending along with business and government expenditures. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the retail and wholesale industries. Retail, wholesale, and other industries rely heavily on foreign markets and on the future of the trade market, as well as frequently depend heavily on foreign-born workers. Changes to US trade policy, immigration, and international events will affect these sectors over a longer horizon. The sector's investment in data centers, AI, and other technologies could boost labor productivity, with further productivity gains potentially stemming from improvement to public infrastructure.
• Consumer sentiment in December 2025 pointed to a cautious economic climate for the US wholesale industry. The University of Michigan Index rose 3.7% month over month to 52.9 but remained 30% below December 2024, and 63% of consumers still expect unemployment to increase. Inflation expectations eased to 4.2% for the next year and 3.2% long term, yet overall confidence stayed subdued. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1, with current condition assessments weakening and expectations holding at recession associated levels. As consumers shift spending toward essential, lower cost categories, wholesalers face softer demand for discretionary goods, tighter inventory turns, and increased price sensitivity across downstream buyers. Essential categories and value oriented product lines are likely to remain more stable as businesses and retailers prioritize affordability and operational efficiency.

• According to the Global Port Tracker from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, US ports handled 2.1 million TEU in September 2025, down 9.3% year over year, with October projected at 1.9 million TEU, an 11.5% decline. A sharper drop is expected in Q1 2026, with January forecast at 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1%. The US wholesale sector faces mounting challenges as import volumes soften under tariff pressure. The declines signal tighter inventory pipelines, longer lead times, and higher costs as tariffs complicate sourcing strategies. The unpredictable tariff policy has made planning difficult, forcing distributors to hedge with diversified suppliers or absorb margin pressure. Overall, wholesalers must adapt logistics and pricing models to navigate reduced cargo flows and ongoing trade uncertainty. Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said the on-again, off-again tariff policy in 2025 has made planning difficult for both importers and ocean carriers. The usual end-of-the-year slowdown is expected in November and December.
• The Wholesale Trade Industry is one of 11 industries reporting growth in October's Services ISM Report on Business. Executives in the Wholesale Trade industry reported increases in business activity, new orders, prices paid for materials and services, and order backlogs, along with slower deliveries and decreases in employment, new export orders, and imports in October. Additional industries reporting growth during the period were Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services. Six industries reported contraction during the period, including Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Construction; and Other Services. Overall, economic activity in the services sector expanded in October, with the Services PMI registering 52.4%.