US Wholesale Sector NAICS 42

Jan 30, 2026 - NRF: January Import Volumes Edge Higher

• According to NRF’s Global Port Tracker, US wholesalers are entering 2026 with subdued import activity and continued demand uncertainty tied to trade policy and seasonal shipping patterns. Import volume at major US container ports totaled 2.02 million TEU in November, down 6.5% year over year, with December projected at 1.99 million TEU, a 6.6% annual decline. January 2026 is expected to see the first month-over-month increase in six months at 2.11 million TEU, but volumes would still be 5.3% lower than a year earlier, with year-over-year declines forecast through April. Full-year 2025 imports are projected at 25.4 million TEU, down 0.4% from 2024. For US wholesalers, these trends signal cautious inventory flows, tighter purchasing strategies, and continued sensitivity to tariffs and broader trade uncertainty until volumes stabilize later in the spring.
• Gartner reports that humanoid robots are unlikely to have a material impact on US wholesale operations in the near term, with adoption expected to remain limited through 2028, according to a report in Modern Materials Handling. Fewer than 100 companies globally are projected to move beyond pilot testing, and fewer than 20 are expected to deploy humanoid robots in live production environments, typically in tightly controlled settings rather than high-volume distribution centers. For wholesalers, this suggests limited near-term labor relief, as current humanoid models struggle with mixed SKUs, trailer unloading, and exception handling. High costs, limited battery life, complex system integration, and lower throughput mean humanoid robots can cost several times more than alternatives while delivering less uptime. Gartner notes that polyfunctional robots, designed for specific warehouse tasks, offer higher efficiency and better throughput-per-dollar, making them a more practical automation path for wholesalers focused on productivity, ROI, and scalable warehouse performance.

• The US wholesale industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.59% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is faster than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report noted that retail and wholesale trade sectors are driven by consumer spending along with business and government expenditures. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the retail and wholesale industries. Retail, wholesale, and other industries rely heavily on foreign markets and on the future of the trade market, as well as frequently depend heavily on foreign-born workers. Changes to US trade policy, immigration, and international events will affect these sectors over a longer horizon. The sector's investment in data centers, AI, and other technologies could boost labor productivity, with further productivity gains potentially stemming from improvement to public infrastructure.
• While five services industries reported contraction in December, 11 industries reported growth, including the Wholesale Trade industry, according to an ISM Services PMI Report. Executives in the Wholesale Trade industry reported increases in business activity, new orders, employment, prices paid for materials and services, new export orders, imports, and order backlogs, along with a decrease in inventories in December. Other industries reporting growth during the period were Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Retail Trade; Public Administration; and Utilities. Industries reporting contraction during the period include Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Educational Services; and Construction. Overall economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, registering 54.4%.