US Wholesale Sector NAICS 42

May 21, 2026 - Supply Chain Stress Reaches Multiyear High

• The US wholesale sector is facing rising supply chain and inventory pressures as global volatility reaches its highest level since late 2022, according to GEP’s Global Supply Chain Volatility Index reported in Consultancy.us. North America’s index jumped to 1.52 in April from 0.42 in March — a 44-month high — as US and Canadian factories aggressively built inventories amid inflation and disruption concerns. Global transportation costs also hit a record high, driven by elevated fuel prices and freight rates tied to ongoing Middle East conflict and reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The report also found shortages of materials and production inputs surged to their highest levels since the post-pandemic supply chain crisis. For US wholesalers, the environment signals higher procurement, shipping, and inventory carrying costs, along with increased pressure to secure supply, manage stock levels carefully, and navigate prolonged supply chain instability that could last another six to 12 months.
• In April 2026, Wholesale Trade ranked 2nd among 14 growing industries within the ISM Services PMI composite reading of 53.6%, extending its 22nd consecutive month of expansion. Business Activity expanded notably, outpacing the broader Services index (55.9% threshold), while New Orders surged sharply above the sector's 52.3% benchmark. Notably, Wholesale Trade's Employment increased — a meaningful divergence from the broader Services Employment Index, which contracted slightly at 49.0%. Supplier Deliveries slowed modestly, broadly consistent with the sector-wide reading of 50.9%, reflecting elevated transaction volumes rather than supply disruption. Inventories contracted slightly, aligning with the broader Services Inventories contraction and indicating disciplined, lean stock management amid strong throughput. Expanding across four of five tracked categories and contracting constructively in one, Wholesale Trade demonstrated broad-based outperformance relative to April 2026 Services sector benchmarks.

• The US wholesale sector is poised to see near-term but delayed cash flow relief as tariff refunds begin rolling out, according to a Modern Distribution Management report. US Customs and Border Protection will start processing International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) -related refunds on April 20, with payments expected in 60–90 days, longer than earlier estimates of up to 45 days. The initial phase applies only to select entries, including those within a 90-day reliquidation window, limiting immediate impact. While the new Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system is designed to handle high claim volumes, the phased rollout and extended timelines suggest benefits will be gradual. Overall, the development supports liquidity but is unlikely to materially improve near-term operating conditions.
• According to the Global Port Tracker produced by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, US wholesalers are entering summer 2026 facing a softer import environment as retailers remain cautious about inventory levels amid inflation, weaker consumer confidence, and geopolitical uncertainty. According to the NRF and Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker, US container imports are expected to stay below 2025 levels through early fall despite temporary year-over-year increases in May and June tied to weak comparisons from tariff disruptions in 2025. March import volumes reached 2.16 million TEU, up 0.6% year over year, but April imports were projected to decline 3.6%. July through September imports are also forecast to fall between 1.3% and 7.8% year over year. For wholesalers, the trend signals slower inventory replenishment activity, softer product demand, and continued pressure on supply chain planning as businesses carefully manage purchasing and stock levels in an uncertain economic environment.