US Wholesale Sector NAICS 42

Mar 20, 2026 - Tariff Rollback Triggers Legal and Pricing Challenges for Distributors

• The rollback of Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, which represent an estimated $135 billion to $200 billion in additional duties paid by US importers, creates major implications for the wholesale industry, according to a report by SGB Media. While the Court of International Trade ordered broad refunds covering some 330,000 importers, the process is complex, requiring protests within 180 days for older entries and facing delays from appeals. New consumer class actions (including a new filing against Costco) introduce liability risk across wholesalers, distributors, and retailers that passed through costs. More than 2,000 companies, including Costco, are suing the government to recover the tariffs paid. A KPMG survey on how companies planned to handle refunds shows only 18% of firms plan full price rollbacks; most will reinvest in supply chains (14%) or inventory (13%). For wholesalers, this drives operational, legal, and pricing uncertainty.
• Modern Materials Handling’s 2026 survey signals cautious near-term spending but sustained long-term automation investment, which is critical for US wholesalers managing labor and e-commerce pressures. While 42% of firms are in “wait-and-see” mode and 24% are delaying investments, 28% still expect 2026 spending to rise. Longer term, 42% plan increased investment over 2–3 years. Automation adoption is accelerating: autonomous mobile robot/automatic guided vehicles usage rose to 16% (from 10%), with 27% evaluating deployment; industrial robot use reached 21% (from 13%). Firms are prioritizing warehouse management systems (21%), warehouse control systems (19%), and data capture (29%). Average spend jumped to $541K (from $402K). Automation is becoming essential to control costs, improve throughput, and compete as e-commerce fulfillment shifts toward DC-based models.

• Following a Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump’s global tariffs as unconstitutional for exceeding authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW) is urging the Administration to quickly return tariff revenues to the businesses that paid them. The decision did not resolve whether refunds are required, leaving companies scrambling to assert claims as the administration considers alternative 10% tariffs under other authorities. NAW represents the $8.2 trillion wholesale distribution industry, employing over 6 million workers and accounting for nearly one-third of US GDP. Because wholesaler-distributors operate on thin margins while keeping supply chains moving, NAW argues that refunding tariff dollars would strengthen cash flow, unlock capital investment, and support reinvestment in inventory, infrastructure, technology, and workforce growth.
• The National Retail Federation reports that US container import volumes are projected to decline year over year in the first half of 2026, signaling tighter product availability and planning challenges for the US wholesale industry. According to Global Port Tracker (produced with Hackett Associates), major ports handled 1.99 million TEU in December (–6.6% YoY). January is forecast at 2.11 million TEU (–5.2% YoY), February 1.97 million (–3.1%), March 1.89 million (–12%), and April 2.05 million (–7.1%). May (2.13 million, +9.3%) and June (2.12 million, +8%) gains reflect weak 2025 comparisons after “Liberation Day” tariffs. First-half 2026 imports are expected to total 12.27 million TEU, down 2% from 12.53 million in 2025. For wholesalers, reduced volumes and tariff uncertainty increase inventory risk, cost pressures, and forecasting difficulty across supply chains.