US Wholesale Sector NAICS 42

May 19, 2025 - Tariffs Impacting Supply Chain: Survey

• According to a new survey from the National Association of Wholesale-Distributors (NAW), tariffs are driving cost increases and creating operational challenges across the wholesale distribution industry. The survey was done in collaboration with Modern Distribution Management (MDM) Research. About a third of distributors say they face price increases of 25% or higher. According to Eric Hoplin, NAW’s CEO, “Though these increases haven’t hit store shelves yet, it’s an indication of where prices are headed.” About 62% of distributors expect their cost of goods will rise by 10% or more in 2025, while 67% of respondents report a negative impact on their business. Nearly 40% of respondents said more than 20% of their inventory originates in China, and only 17% can shift to domestic or non-impacted suppliers. Operational actions being taken by distributors include slowing inventory replacement (48%), delaying new hiring (44%), cutting capital investments (37%), and reducing discretionary spending (60%).
• According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo at major US container ports is expected to see its first year over year decline in more than a year and a half in May 2025, projected to decrease nearly 13%, due to tariff turmoil. Imports are expected to be down at least 20% year over year from June 2025 into the fall, and volume for the year could fall by more than 10%. A series of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration since February have come at a key time in the buying process for retailers, with many retailers pausing or canceling orders as a result. Jonathan Gold, NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said the effects of the tariffs on the supply chain are becoming apparent, noting, “From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes. In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.” Tracker data showed that US ports handled 2.1 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in March 2025, up 11.1% year over year, and a projected 2.2 million TEU in April 2025, expected to be up 9.1% year over year.

• The US wholesale industry is projected to grow at a 4.1% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, comparable to the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services but noted that consumers so far have maintained spending on goods even as spending on travel and live entertainment has risen.
• Consumer confidence levels fell in April 2025 month over month, dropping by 7.9 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. In addition, the final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”